July 03, 2022

The ALP in Victoria holds a large election-winning lead only months before the State Election: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%

Topic: Morgan Poll Review, Press Release, Public Opinion, Special Poll, State Poll
Finding No: 8998
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The ALP on 59.5% has a large election-winning lead in Victoria well ahead of the L-NP on 40.5% on a two-party preferred basis, unchanged from November 2021, according to a special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted from Thursday June 30 – Saturday July 2, 2022.

The result of the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll represents an increase in support for the ALP of 2.2% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election won by the ALP 57.3% cf. L-NP 42.7% and is on track to increase its already large majority in the Victorian Parliament.

Although since November 2021 the two-party preferred result was unchanged, primary support for the ALP is down 1.5% points to 43.5% while support for the L-NP was up slightly by 0.5% points to 29.5%. Support for the Greens also increased, up 1.5% points to 12%.

The total support for other minor parties and independents is now at 15%, down 0.5% points since November 2021. This includes Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 2% (down 2% points), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party on 1% (down 1% point).

There are 12% of Victorians who support either a ‘Teal Independent’ (3%) or Other Parties and Independents (9%). This is the first time the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll has measured support for the ‘Teal Independents’ separately from other Independents.

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,710 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Thursday June 30, 2021, to Saturday July 2, 2021.

Approval for Premier Daniel Andrews remains strong and Andrews is clearly preferred to Matthew Guy

This Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll found 63.5% of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, unchanged from November 2021, while a minority of 36.5% (unchanged) now disapprove of his handling of the job.

Electors were then asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”

The contest between the two leaders is clearly in favour of the incumbent with 64.5% of electors saying Daniel Andrews is the ‘Better Premier’ compared to only 35.5% preferring Matthew Guy – a margin of nearly 2:1 in favour of the incumbent.

Electors were then asked: “What, if anything, would concern you about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews?” and “What, if anything, would concern you about a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy?”

In relation to a re-elected ALP Government led again by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews there were several key themes that emerged including allegations of corruption and lack of accountability and transparency and the secrecy of the government, the state of healthcare and health services including availability of ambulances, his arrogant and dictatorial governing style, the amount of debt and out of control spending while ALP supporters tended to say there is ‘nothing’ that concerns them.

In terms of a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy the main themes to emerge were allegations of corruption including several people who mentioned ‘lobster with a mobster’, his incompetence and lack of experience, the L-NP policies on climate change, his weakness and poor leadership abilities, the spending cuts they would make while a lot of respondents didn’t know who he was. Many Liberal supporters said there was ‘nothing’ that concerned them.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the latest Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows the Victorian Labor Government led by Premier Daniel Andrews is well on the way to an easy re-election later this year continuing to hold a large lead over the Matthew Guy-led Opposition:

Block Quote

“The Victorian ALP has maintained its commanding two-party preferred lead on 59.5% compared to the Liberal-National Opposition on 40.5% – unchanged since November 2021. This result is a small improvement (+2.2% points) for the ALP since the 2018 Victorian Election when the ALP won with a near record share of the two-party preferred vote: ALP 57.3% cf. L-NP 42.7%.

“Premier Daniel Andrews has an even higher personal approval rating with 63.5% of people approving of the job he is doing as Premier, unchanged from November 2021. In a head-to-head contest against Opposition Leader Matthew Guy for ‘Better Premier’ the preference is even stronger for the incumbent: Premier Daniel Andrews (64.5%) vs. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy (35.5%).

“All the signs point to an easy third election victory in a row coming up for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor Government with the large two-party preferred lead being consistently maintained over the last few years despite the extended lockdowns in Victoria. By some measures Melbourne is regarded as the most ‘locked down’ city in the world during the COVID-19 pandemic with residents largely confined to their homes for nearly nine months throughout 2020-2021.

“A victory for Premier Daniel Andrews at this year’s State Election will mean he is the third ALP Leader to take the party to three consecutive victories after John Cain Jr. did so in 1982, 1985 and 1988, and Steve Bracks led the party to three straight victories in 1999, 2002 and 2005.

“Premier Andrews was first elected at the 2002 State Election won by Bracks and a win later this year will give Andrews the chance to be Victoria’s second longest serving Premier behind only former Liberal Premier Sir Henry Bolte who was Premier for over 17 years from 1955-1972.

“However, despite the large leads held by Premier Andrews and the Labor Government there are several concerns held by electors that Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and the Liberal Party will seek to exploit. These include the allegations of corruption and lack of transparency, the perceived arrogance and dictatorial governance style cited by many as well as the state of healthcare and health services in the state.

“These concerns were mentioned by many electors but it remains to be seen whether the Victorian Liberal Party has the wherewithal to focus the electorate’s mind on the apparent failings of the incumbent Government or will themselves become the issue due to concerns about their perceived lack of experience, general incompetence and poor leadership abilities.

“Since former Liberal Premier Jeff Kennett lost power at the 1999 Victorian State Election the Liberals have been in power for only four out of 23 years – a paltry 17% of that time period.”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,710 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Thursday June 30, 2021, to Saturday July 2, 2021.

To purchase the full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention, Approval or Disapproval of Premier Daniel Andrews, Better Premier between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions regarding concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews or a potential Liberal-National Government led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.

By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email 
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Question 1:

“If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

Victorian Electors 18+
PRIMARY 2018 Vic
Election
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Nov 11,
2021
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022
VOTE % % % % % % %
ALP 42.9 39 40 45 43 45 43.5
Liberal 30.4 37 36 30.5 28 27 27
National 4.8 2.5 4 4 3 2 2.5
L-NP 35.2 39.5 40 34.5 31 29 29.5
Greens 10.7 10 9 11 11 10.5 12
Total Others 10.2 11.5 11 9.5 15 15.5 15
UAP n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 4 2
Justice Party n/a n/a n/a n/a 2 2 1
‘Teal Independents’ n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3
Other Parties & Independents 11.2 11.5 11 9.5 10 9.5 9
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

Victorian Electors 18+
2018 Vic
Election
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Nov 11,
2021
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022
2PP % % % % % % %
ALP 57.3 51.5 51.5 58.5 58 59.5 59.5
L-NP 42.7 48.5 48.5 41.5 42 40.5 40.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Question 2:

“Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Daniel Andrews is handling his job as Premier of Victoria?” – Trends.

Victorian Electors 18+
Sep 8-9,
2020
Sep 28-29,
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Nov 11,
2021
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022
% % % % % % %
Approve 70 61 59 71 60.5 63.5 63.5
Disapprove 30 39 41 29 39.5 36.5 36.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Question 3:

“Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. In your opinion, who would make the Better Premier?” – Trends.

Victorian Electors 18+
Oct
2015
Dec
2015
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
Jun
2016
Sep
2016
Oct
2016
Jun 30 –
Jul 2, 2022
% % % % % % % %
Daniel Andrews 63.5 64 62.5 63 63.5 59 59 64.5
Matthew Guy 36.5 36 37.5 37 36.5 41 41 35.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Victorian Electors 18+
Jan
2015
Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr
2015
May
2015
Jun
2015
Jul
2015
Aug
2015
% % % % % % % %
Daniel Andrews 66.5 62.5 62.5 59.5 63 61.5 64 61
Matthew Guy 33.5 37.5 37.5 40.5 37 38.5 36 39
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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