The ALP increases its lead over the L-NP as petrol prices spike well above $2 per litre: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%
A Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last week shows the ALP has increased its lead over the L-NP to its largest during the current term of the Morrison Government with the ALP 58% (up 2% points from a week ago) now even further ahead of the L-NP 42% (down 2%) points) on a two-party preferred basis.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted as the Russian war on Ukraine entered its fourth week and the increase in energy prices caused by the war has increasingly led to soaring petrol prices around Australia well above $2 per litre.
Analysis by State shows the ALP gaining support in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia while L-NP support increased in Tasmania and Queensland.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,418 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday March 14 - Sunday March 20, 2022. There were 7.5% of electors (up 2% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.
ALP leads L-NP by 6.5% points on primary vote as petrol prices spike well above $2 per litre
Primary support for the ALP increased 0.5% points to 37.5% in mid-March as petrol prices in Australia hit record highs above $2 per litre. The ALP is now a large 6.5% points ahead of the L-NP, down 2.5% points to 31%. Support for the Greens was up 0.5% points at 12%.
Support for One Nation was unchanged at 3%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties increased by 1.5% points to 5% while support for Independents was unchanged at 10.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in five States, behind only in Queensland
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States, with the LNP enjoying a slight advantage in Queensland – easily their strongest state from the last Election.
The ALP’s lead in NSW has increased slightly from a week ago with the ALP now on 57.5% (up 1% point from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 42.5% (down 1% point) as arguments between the State and Federal L-NP Governments over who is responsible for the handling of the recent floods disaster in Northern New South Wales. This result represents a large swing of 9.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Victoria has also increased with the ALP now on 64% (up 4.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 35.5% (down 4.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 11.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The LNP has again increased its advantage in Queensland with the LNP on 54.5% (up 2.5% points from a week ago) now even further ahead of the ALP on 45.5% (down 3.5% points). Despite the LNP’s lead this result represents a swing of 3.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has increased from a week ago with the ALP on 59% (up 6% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 41% (down 6% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 14.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and comes despite Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s first visit to Western Australia this year during the past week.
In South Australia and fresh off a big State Election victory over the weekend – the first by an opposition in Australasia since the COVID-19 pandemic began just over two years ago - the ALP has increased its lead significantly and is now on 60.5% (up 6% points from a week ago) cf. the L-NP on 39.5% (down 6% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a large swing of 9.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP also leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%, representing a swing of 4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence dropped 5pts to 83 in mid-March
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 5pts to 83 in mid-March. Now just a third of Australians, 33.5% (down 3.5% points) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 50.5% (up 1.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of over 50pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Western Australia on 98.5, NSW and Queensland, both just above the national average on 85.
In the other three States Government Confidence is below average at 82 in South Australia, 78.5 in Victoria and well below average in Tasmania at only 46.5. Only 20.5% of Tasmanians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 74.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 58% (up 2% points from a week ago) strengthening its lead over the L-NP 42% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This is the first decisive move in support for either party since the Russian invasion of Ukraine a month ago caused a large spike in petrol prices around Australia.
“The last week has been a good one for the ALP with South Australian ALP Leader Peter Malinauskas leading the party to an easy victory in the State Election over the weekend. The victory for the Malinauskas-led ALP marks the first victory for an Opposition Party since the COVID-19 pandemic began in March 2020.
“Over the last two years the ALP Governments of Queensland, WA, the NT, the ACT and the Liberal Government of Tasmania have all won easy re-elections. The win by the Malinauskas-led ALP in South Australia provides added optimism for the Federal ALP as it faces an election in under two months’ time and currently enjoys a large advantage in voter support.
“The collapse in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence over the last few months is also providing a drag for the Morrison Government. Consumer Confidence ended 2021 at 108.4 and has since dropped 17.2pts (-15.9%) to 91.2 and is now at its lowest since Victoria’s second wave of COVID-19 in late 2020.
“The big driver of this fall in support for the L-NP Government, as well as the precipitious drop in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating, appears to be the soaring price of petrol. Petrol prices in Australia have increased significantly this year and are now well above $2 per litre and at record highs.
“The high and rising petrol prices are feeding the impression that inflation is set to increase over the next few months and this is borne out by the latest Inflation Expectations at 5.1% for the month of February 2022 – the highest for nearly eight years since June 2014. All the indications from the weekly index are that Inflation Expectations have continued to increase during March as petrol prices have increased.
“The confluence of factors at the moment is clearly favouring the Anthony Albanese-led ALP Opposition while the Federal Government is pinning its hopes on a vote-winning Federal Budget due to be delivered this time next week to regain support as we soon head into the official Federal Election campaign.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|