Roy Morgan Research
March 03, 2022

The first Roy Morgan Poll conducted since Russia invaded Ukraine one week ago shows no impact on Federal Voting Intention: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 8916

A special Roy Morgan Poll conducted during the first week of the Russia-Ukraine war shows no change in Federal voting intention in Australia with the ALP 56.5% still well ahead of the L-NP 43.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

Analysis by State shows small movements with support for the L-NP up slightly in Queensland and South Australia balanced out by support for the ALP rising slightly in Victoria and Western Australia.

Overall these movements are so far balancing out, but this is based on small samples of interviews in these States. There have also been extensive flooding in Queensland and now New South Wales which are clearly having a direct impact on millions of Australians.

Next week’s Roy Morgan Poll will provide a full analysis of movements in Federal voting intention by State following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,141 Australian electors aged 18+ from Thursday February 14 -Wednesday March 2, 2022 with the entire poll conducted Russian invaded Ukraine.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

“Although this first Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted since Russia invaded Ukraine shows little overall impact it is early in the conflict and the Federal Government has so far done little to outline what Australia will be doing to help ensure a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

“Typically when there’s a major global event such as a war, or a pandemic, the public support for the Government in power rises. This special Roy Morgan Poll shows that during the first week of the conflict this hasn’t yet occurred – although it may happen if the conflict drags  on.

“One of the driving factors that increases support for the Government in power is providing leadership and increasing the confidence of the people that the Government is responding to the crisis in a constructive manner. Prime Minister Scott Morrison needs to clearly articulate how Australia can contribute towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Ukraine and outline what Australia can do – such as increasing energy exports to Europe of gas and coal so they can be less reliant on Russian energy – that will contribute to ending the current war as soon as possible.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–March 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

Back to topBack To Top Arrow