February 16, 2022

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg emerges as preferred Liberal Leader ahead of Scott Morrison & Peter Dutton

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8902
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Now 38.5% of Australians prefer Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to lead the L-NP Government, clearly ahead of current Prime Minister Scott Morrison (31%) and Defence Minister Peter Dutton (12.5%) while 2% named someone else and 16% had no preference.

Importantly for Prime Minister Morrison, he is still preferred by L-NP supporters: Morrison (40%) cf. Frydenberg (32.5%), according to a special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 1,080 Australian electors conducted yesterday and Monday, February 14-15, 2022.

An analysis by gender shows Frydenberg leads Morrison amongst men by 3% points (Frydenberg: 36% cf. Morrison: 33.5%), and by 12% points amongst women (Frydenberg 41% cf. Morrison 29%).

An analysis by age shows Frydenberg with the advantage amongst younger age groups while Morrison leads only amongst those aged 65+ years old:

  • 18-34 year olds: Frydenberg 46.5% cf. Morrison 22%;
  • 35-49 year olds: Frydenberg 36.5% cf. Morrison 30%;
  • 50-64 year olds: Frydenberg 37% cf. Morrison 29.5%;
  • 65+ year olds: Morrison 46% cf. Frydenberg 33%.

On a State-by-State basis Frydenberg leads in five States, NSW, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania while Morrison leads only in Queensland.

  • NSW: Frydenberg 38% cf. Morrison 35.5%;
  • Victoria: Frydenberg 43.5% cf. Morrison 26%;
  • Queensland: Morrison 37.5% cf. Frydenberg 32%;
  • WA: Frydenberg 38.5% cf. Morrison 25.5%;
  • SA: Frydenberg 37% cf. Morrison 30.5%;
  • Tasmania: Frydenberg 43.5% cf. Morrison 33%.

A look at who supporters of different parties prefer as Leader shows Prime Minister Morrison retains the support of L-NP voters while Frydenberg is preferred by ALP supporters, Greens supporters and supporters of Independents/Others.

  • L-NP supporters: Morrison 47% cf. Frydenberg 38.5%;
  • ALP supporters: Frydenberg 50% cf. Morrison 34%;
  • Greens supporters: Frydenberg 65% cf. Morrison 27.5%;
  • Independents/ Others supporters: Frydenberg 38.5% cf. Morrison 33.5%.

Electors were then asked: “And what would you say your biggest concerns are about Scott Morrison?”
There were several key themes that emerged including Morrison’s poor leadership including lack of empathy, compassion or honesty, his religiosity – including using his religion in a fake way, no real commitment to addressing climate change and global warming and his poor attitude and understanding and handling of women’s issues.
More details on these key themes are available to subscribers.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says:

Block Quote
“Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has emerged as the favoured leader of the Liberal Party according to Australians with 38.5% preferring the Deputy Liberal Leader compared to 31% that prefer his boss, Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and 12.5% that prefer Defence Minister Peter Dutton.
“Frydenberg is preferred across nearly all key demographic groups including by both genders, by all age groups under the age of 65, in five out of six states and by supporters of the ALP, Greens, Independents and Others.
“However, there is still a solid base of support for Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Most importantly for Morrison he is clearly favoured by L-NP supporters over Frydenberg (47% cf. 38.5%). Morrison is also preferred by people in the key State of Queensland (37.5% cf. 32%) and with people aged 65+ years old (46% cf. 33%).
“Defence Minister Peter Dutton trails well behind both Morrison and Frydenberg. The highest support for Dutton comes from supporters of Independents/ Other (minor) Parties from which he attracts 22% support, but this is still well behind both Frydenberg (31%) and Morrison (27%).”

This special telephone Roy Morgan SMS Poll was conducted on February 14-15, 2022, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,080 electors.

Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention

Feb 14-15,
2022
L-NP ALP Greens Ind/
Other#
Can’t say#
% % % % % %
Frydenberg 38.5 32.5 40.5 51 31 53.5
Morrison 31 40 27.5 21.5 27 24
Dutton 12.5 12.5 13 6 22 13
Someone else 2 2.5 1.5 3 1 1
None/ Can’t say 16 12.5 17.5 18.5 19 8.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Gender & Age

  Gender Age
Feb 14-15,
2022
Men Women 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
% % % % % % %
Frydenberg 38.5 36 41 46.5 36.5 37 33
Morrison 31 33.5 29 22 30 29.5 46
Dutton 12.5 16.5 9 9.5 15.5 14 12
Someone else 2 1.5 2 3 1 1.5 1
None/ Can’t say 16 12.5 19 19 17 18 8
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Gender & Age

  Region State
Feb 14-15,
2022
Capital
Cities
Country Areas NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS#
% % % % % % % % %
Frydenberg 38.5 41 35 38 43.5 32 38.5 37 43.5
Morrison 31 31 31.5 35.5 26 37.5 25.5 30.5 33
Dutton 12.5 11 15 12 14.5 14 9 11 15.5
Someone else 2 1 2.5 0.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 2.5
None/ Can’t say 16 16 16 14 14 15 26 21 5.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.

Preferred Coalition Leader (Scott Morrison vs. Peter Dutton vs. Josh Frydenberg)

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer: Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Josh Frydenberg?

Analysis by Federal Voting intention (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

Feb 14-15,
2022
L-NP ALP Greens Ind/
Other#
Can’t say#
% % % % % %
Frydenberg 47 38.5 50 65 38.5 59
Morrison 38 47 34 27.5 33.5 26.5
Dutton 15 14.5 16 7.5 28 14.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Gender & Age (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

  Gender Age
Feb 14-15,
2022
Men Women 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
% % % % % % %
Frydenberg 47 42 52 59.5 44.5 46 36.5
Morrison 38 39 37 28.5 37 36.5 50.5
Dutton 15 19 11 12 18.5 17.5 13
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by State & Region (Someone else and None/Can’t say removed)

  Region State
Feb 14-15,
2022
Capital
Cities
Country Areas NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS#
% % % % % % % % %
Frydenberg 47 49 43 44.5 51.5 38.5 52.5 47 47.5
Morrison 38 37.5 39 41 31.5 45 35.5 39 35.5
Dutton 15 13.5 18 14.5 17 16.5 12 14 17
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Sample sizes with fewer than 50 respondents should be treated with caution.

For further information:

ContactOfficeMobile
Gary Morgan:+61 3 9224 5213+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:+61 3 9224 5215+61 411 129 093

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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