October 01, 2020

Victorians now against Stage 4 Covid Restrictions

Topic: Press Release, Public Opinion, Special Poll, State Poll
Finding No: 8531
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Now a majority of 56% of Victorians want Melbourne’s restaurants/hotels/clubs/cafes to be allowed to provide table service with proper social distancing – up a large 19% points from three weeks ago (37% on Sep. 8/9, 2020) according to the fifth Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victoria’s Stage 4 restrictions.

While the Andrews Labor Government still has a small lead on a two-party preferred (2PP) basis (51.5% ALP cf. 48.5% L-NP) Daniel Andrews’ approval is down 9% points in three weeks to 61%.

This is the first time since Stage 4 restrictions began in Melbourne in early August that a majority of Victorians support the re-opening of hospitality businesses for table service. Support for re-opening is consistent amongst Melburnians (57%) and people in Country Victoria (54%).

There is also clear support for the ending of the 5km travel limit for Melburnians with 61% (up 11% points from two weeks ago – 50% on Sep. 15/16, 2020) agreeing that Melburnians should be able to travel more than 5km from their home compared to 39% (down 11% points) that say they should not.

There is a considerable difference between views in Melbourne where 66% support the ending of the travel restrictions compared to only 45% of people in Country Victoria.

For the second straight survey an increasing majority of Victorians, 59%, up 4% points from two weeks ago – 53% on Sep. 15-16, 2020, say Melbourne residents should be able to visit the homes of their immediate families compared to 41% (down 4% points) that say they should not.

Victorians surveyed were each asked the following questions to determine their attitudes towards the current Victorian Government Stage 4 directives:

  • Question 1“Melbourne residents are currently banned from visiting the homes of immediate family members with the exception of singles, delivering care or essential services. Should Melbourne residents now be able to visit the homes of their immediate families?” Yes 59% (up 4% from two weeks ago) cf. No 41% (down 4%).
  • Question 2“Melbourne’s restaurants/hotels/clubs/cafes are only allowed to offer take-away or food delivery services. Should Melbourne’s restaurants/hotels/clubs/cafes now be allowed to provide table service with proper social distancing?” Yes 56% (up 19% from three weeks ago) cf. No 44% (down 19%).
  • Question 3“Melbourne residents are currently restricted from travelling more than 5km from their homes for exercise or buying essential items such as food. Should Melbourne residents now be free to travel more than 5km from their home?” Yes 61% (up 11% from two weeks ago) cf. No 39% (down 11%).

Victorian electors surveyed were also asked about their voting preferences and whether they approved or disapproved of Premier Daniel Andrew’s handling of his job.

  • Question 4: Victorian electors were asked: "If a State Election for Victoria were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" ALP 39% (up 2% from two weeks ago), L-NP 39.5% (up 1%),Greens 10% (down 2%), Independents 5.5% (up 1.5%) and Others 6% (down 2.5%). Two-party preferred is now ALP 51.5% (unchanged) cf. L-NP 48.5% (unchanged).
  • Question 5“Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Daniel Andrews is handling his job as Premier of Victoria?” Approve 61% (down 9% from three weeks ago) cf. Disapprove 39% (up 9% from three weeks ago).

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,223 Victorians aged 18+ conducted on Monday September 29 – Tuesday September 30, 2020.


Both genders and all ages support Melburnians having the right to visit the homes of their families

Support for the rights of Melburnians to visit the homes of their immediate families has now increased for the fourth straight survey, now at 59%, up 4% points from two weeks ago and up 16% points from late August.

Both women (59%) and men (60%) agree that Melburnians should now be able to visit the homes of their immediate families and clear majorities of all age groups agree led by people aged 65+ (68%), and including those aged 50-64 (60%), under 35 (58%) and aged 35-49 (55%).

L-NP supporters are the most likely to support the lifting of this restriction with 57% saying Melbourne residents should now be able to visit the homes of their immediate families just ahead of Greens supporters (56%). However, only 42% of ALP supporters agree – easily the lowest support of any supporter group.


Majorities of supporters of all political parties want to see restaurants re-open for table service

A majority of supporters of all major political parties say it is time for Melbourne’s restaurants/hotels/clubs/ cafes to reopen including nearly two-thirds of L-NP supporters (65%) and narrow majorities of both Greens supporters (52%) and ALP supporters (51%). There are also a majority of supporters of Independents/ Others (56%) who support re-opening.

Support for re-opening for table service is virtually identical for both women (57%) and men (56%) and is highest for older Victorians led by people aged 65+ (64%) and 50-64 (57%).


Over three-fifths of Victorians (61%) support ending the 5km travel restrictions on Melburnians

Large majorities of both women (63%) and men (59%) agree Melburnians should be able to travel more than 5km from their home. There are also clear majorities of all age groups led by 63% of Victorians aged 35-49, 62% of those aged 65+, 60% of people aged under 35 and 59% of those aged 50-64.

Support for ending the 5km travel restriction is also strong regardless of which political party one supports led by 62% of L-NP supporters, 56% of Greens supporters, 54% of ALP supporters and 63% of those who support Independents and Others.


Two-Party Preferred support for the major parties is again split by Region & Gender

The gender and regional splits between the major parties remains two weeks after the last Roy Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention. City-dwellers in Melbourne and women continue to support the ALP on a two-party preferred basis while Country Victorians and men are more likely to support the L-NP.

Women clearly favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support at 55% compared to only 45% for the L-NP. In contrast a majority of 51.5% of men support the L-NP compared to 48.5% supporting the ALP.

Melburnians (who comprise the bulk of the population of Victoria) favour the ALP on a two-party preferred basis with support of 53.5% compared to 46.5% for the L-NP while in Country Victoria support for the L-NP is at 55% compared to only 45% for the ALP.


Approval for Dan Andrews handling of his job is down, but remains sky high for ALP supporters

A large majority of ALP supporters (89%), and almost as many Greens supporters (80%), approve of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job with both results little changed from three weeks ago.

However, there has been a significant drop for how L-NP supporters regard the Premier’s handling of his job, with only 38% approving the job he’s doing, down 5% points. There has been an even larger drop for supporters of Independents/Others, with only 36% approving, down 17% points.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the majority of Victorians now want an end to several Stage 4 restrictions that remain in Melbourne including allowing people to visit their immediate families, the re-opening of restaurants and cafés and ending the 5km travel limit:


“For the first time clear majorities of Victorians support ending all three of the key Stage 4 restrictions imposed as part of the lockdown on Melbourne.

“Now 59% (up 4ppts) of Victorians say Melburnians should now be able to visit the homes of their immediate families, 56% (up 17ppts) say Melbourne’s restaurants and cafes should be able to re-open offering table service with proper social distancing and 61% (up 11ppts) say the 5km travel restrictions should now be ended.

“Although Premier Daniel Andrews has flagged that these restrictions are set to continue for another 2+ weeks as Victoria seeks to lower community transmission of COVID-19 further, Victorians continue to approve of the way Daniel Andrews is handling his job – now at 61% - but that support is dwindling – and is down a significant  9% points from early September.

“Approval of the way Daniel Andrews is handling his job remains very strong amongst both ALP supporters (89%) and Greens supporters (80%) – but has dropped for L-NP supporters (38%) and supporters of Independents/Others (36%) as the lockdown has been extended for a longer period than initially expected.

“There is little change on voting intentions since mid-September with primary support for both major parties up slightly at the expense of the Greens and other minor parties but overall the ALP (51.5%) retains a narrow two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (48.5%).”

For further comment or more information contact:

Michele Levine 0411129093 or Gary Morgan 0411129094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Question 1:

Should Melbourne residents now be able to visit the homes of their immediate families?

Question 2:

Should Melbourne restaurants/hotels/clubs/cafes now be allowed to provide table service with proper social distancing? YES by Gender & Age

Source: Roy Morgan Special Snap SMS Poll of Victorians conducted on Monday September 28 to Tuesday September 29, 2020, n=2,223 with over 1,000 respondents each asked 3 questions. Base: Victorians aged 18+.

Question 3:

Should Melbourne residents now be free to travel more than 5km from their home?
YES by Gender & Age

Source: Roy Morgan Special Snap SMS Poll of Victorians conducted on Monday September 28 to Tuesday September 29, 2020, n=2,223 with over 1,000 respondents each asked 3 questions. Base: Victorians aged 18+.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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