November 12, 2021

Victoria’s major parties both lose support to minor parties while Premier Daniel Andrews’ job approval is over 10% points lower than a year ago

Topic: Press Release, Public Opinion, Special Poll, State Poll
Finding No: 8858
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A Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in Victoria shows the ALP lead over the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis is virtually unchanged from a year ago although both major parties have lost primary support to minor parties and independents according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victorian voting intention conducted yesterday.

A Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in Victoria shows the ALP lead over the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis is virtually unchanged from a year ago although both major parties have lost primary support to minor parties and independents according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victorian voting intention conducted yesterday.

The ALP leads comfortably on a two-party preferred basis on 58% (down 0.5% points from November 2020) compared to the L-NP on 42% (up 0.5% points). The result is similar to the results at the last Victorian State Election in 2018 which was won easily by the ALP 57.3% cf. L-NP 42.7%.


Primary support for both major parties down, up for minor parties and independents

Primary support for the ALP is now at 43%, down 2% points from one year ago in November 2020 and is well ahead of the L-NP was down 3.5% points to 31% while support for the Greens is unchanged at 11%.

The big winners from a year ago are the minor parties and independents with total support of 15%, up 5.5% points from a year ago. Support is highest for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 3% ahead of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party on 2% while 3.5% of people support other parties. Support for independents is at 6.5%, up 2% points on a year ago.


Premier Daniel Andrews’ job approval is still high, but down over 10% points in a year

The Roy Morgan survey found 60.5% of Victorian electors now approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, down 10.5% points from a year ago in November 2020 while 39.5%, up 10.5% points disapprove of his handling of the job.


ALP continues to hold massive two-party preferred lead amongst women

Despite the drift in support to minor parties, the ALP continues to hold a large two-party preferred lead amongst key demographics and this is especially true for women who support the ALP 65% cf. L-NP 35%.

The support amongst men also favours the ALP, but by a narrower margin of ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.

The ALP’s lead is stronger in Country Victoria than in the heavily locked down city of Melbourne. In Country Victoria the ALP 63% has a large two-party preferred lead over the L-NP on 37%.

ALP support in Melbourne is also strong, but the two-party preferred lead isn’t as significant: ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

Melbourne became what some claim is the ‘most locked down city in the world’ before emerging from its sixth lockdown in mid-October.


Young people give highest marks for Premier Andrews’ handling of his job

The approval of Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of his job is heavily correlated to age. A large majority of young Victorians aged under 35 (72%) approve of Premier Andrews’ handling of the job compared to only 28% that disapprove.

This strong approval declines progressively with age. Over two-fifths of those aged 35-49 (62.5%) and 50-64 (61%) approve of Andrews’ handling of the job while this drops to only 55% of people aged 65+.

The approval rating for Premier Daniel Andrews amongst the genders match the figures for the two-party preferred voting support with 65% of women approving of Andrews’ handling of his job compared to 55.5% of men.

Analysing the results by voting intention shows just how widely divergent the views of supporters of the different parties are.

A near unanimous 97% of ALP voters approve of Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of the job and a large majority of 84% of Greens supporters also approve.

In contrast, only 16% of L-NP supporters approve of Premier Andrews’ handling of the job and this drops to only 1.5% of supporters of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the results of the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Victorian voting intention shows the ALP Government and Premier Daniel Andrews is in a strong position a year out from next year’s 2022 Victorian State Election:

Block Quote

“Victorians have endured a tough 18 months with six lockdowns – including three long lockdowns – and a world record period of around nine months in lockdown finally ending in mid-October.

“Despite the hardship Victorians are still largely behind the ALP Government and Premier Daniel Andrews. On a two-party preferred basis the ALP 58% has a strong lead over the L-NP 42% – very similar to the 2018 Victorian State Election result of ALP 57.3% cf. L-NP 42.7%.

“The approval of Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of the job is also strong with 60.5% approving of his handling of the job compared to 39.5% – although this is down over 10% points from the record high of 71% a year ago when Victoria had also just emerged from a long lockdown.

“The key to understanding the strength of the support for Premier Andrews is his strength with Women (65% approve cf. 35% disapprove), young people aged under 35 (72% approve cf. 28% disapprove) and in the relatively lockdown-free Country Victoria (63% approve cf. 37% disapprove).

“However, there are large partisan divides between supporters of different parties. An extraordinarily high 97% of ALP supporters approve of Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of the job and a nearly as high 84% of Greens supporters. In contrast, only 16% of L-NP supporters approve of Premier Daniel Andrews’ handling of the job and this drops to only 1.5% of supporters of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.

“These results illustrate the problem facing the Liberal-National Opposition. They have barely made an impact on the Victorian Government over the last year despite the record days in lockdown and in an effort to rejuvenate their position they changed leaders just over two months ago.

“Former Leader Matthew Guy was restored to the leadership in early September but faces a big task to provide a credible alternative at next year’s Victorian Election. Guy as the Liberal Party Leader at the 2018 Victorian Election at which the party suffered a record-breaking defeat.

“However, no sooner had Matthew Guy returned to the leadership and conducted a Shadow Cabinet reshuffle than one of his closest friends in the party, newly appointed Shadow Attorney-General Tim Smith, crashed his car into a house after a night of drinking and was forced to resign his position and will now leave Parliament at the next State Election.

“The drink-driving scandal that forced Tim Smith out of Shadow Cabinet only weeks after his promotion to be Shadow Attorney-General underlines the credibility problem facing the Liberal Party as they try to convince Victorians they are ready to govern the State.”

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,357 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted on Wednesday November 10, 2021.

If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorian Electors 18+

Gender

Region

PRIMARY

2018 Vic
Election

Sep
2020

Oct
2020

Nov
2020

Nov 11,
2021

Men

Women

Melbourne

Country
Areas

VOTE

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42.9

39

40

45

43

37

48

43.5

41.5

Liberal

30.4

37

36

30.5

28

32.5

24.5

30

24.5

National

4.8

2.5

4

4

3

3.5

2.5

0

9

L-NP

35.2

39.5

40

34.5

31

36

27

30

33.5

Greens

10.7

10

9

11

11

11

10.5

12.5

7

Total Others

10.2

11.5

11

9.5

15

16

14.5

14

18

UAP

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

3

4

2.5

3

3

Justice Party

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

2

2

2

2.5

1.5

Others

5.1

6

6

5

3.5

4

3

3

4

Ind.

6.1

5.5

5

4.5

6.5

6

7

5.5

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention. By Gender & Region

Victorian Electors 18+

Gender

Region

 

2018 Vic
Election

Sep
2020

Oct
2020

Nov
2020

Nov 11,
2021

Men

Women

Melbourne

Country
Areas

2PP

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

57.3

51.5

51.5

58.5

58

55.5

65

59.5

63

L-NP

42.7

48.5

48.5

41.5

42

44.5

35

40.5

37

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Question 2:

Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Daniel Andrews is handling his job as Premier of Victoria? By Gender & Age

Victorians 18+

Gender

Age

 

Sep 8-9,
2020

Sep 28-29,
2020

Oct
2020

Nov
2020

Nov 11,
2021

Men

Women

Under 35

35-49

50-64

65+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

70

61

59

71

60.5

55.5

65

72

62.5

61

55

Disapprove

30

39

41

29

39.5

44.5

35

28

37.5

39

45

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

By Melbourne & Country Victoria

 

Victorians
18+

Melbourne

Country Victoria

 

%

%

%

Approve

60.5

59.5

63

Disapprove

39.5

40.5

37

TOTAL

100

100

100

By State Vote

Victorian
Electors

Party Vote

L-NP

ALP

Greens

UAP (Palmer)

Justice (Hinch)

Ind/Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

61

16

97

84

1.5

37.5

32.5

62.5

Disapprove

39

84

3

16

98.5

62.5

67.5

37.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email 
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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