A Dangerous Convergence: Disaffection and the rise of ‘Sovereign Citizens’
The murder of two police officers in Victoria this week, allegedly by a self-proclaimed ‘Sovereign Citizen’, is not an isolated outburst of extremism. It sits squarely within the same disaffected population Roy Morgan has identified – more than one million Australians (1,152,000) who feel left behind, alienated, and deeply distrusting of authority.
“This tragedy highlights the most dangerous outcome of deep alienation,” said Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan. “When disaffection hardens into outright rejection of authority, what begins as frustration can spill over into radicalisation and violence. This is Australia’s democratic fault line.”
Both ‘Sovereign Citizens’, and their broader disaffected cohort, reject mainstream political and legal authority. Roy Morgan data show this group believes government no longer represents them, echoing the ‘Sovereign Citizen’ creed that laws and institutions are illegitimate.
As Michele Levine observed, “Disaffected Australians are increasingly driven by emotion rather than engagement. ‘Sovereign Citizen’ ideology simply gives that alienation a militant voice.”
- Overrepresentation in regional and outer suburban areas: Roy Morgan research shows concentrations of disaffected Australians in rural Australia and outer suburban pockets — precisely the geographies where ‘Sovereign Citizen’ ideology has taken root.
- From Political Disillusion to Violence: The disaffected cohort is already more inclined toward fringe political movements such as One Nation (2.5 times the national average). For some, the step from disillusioned political preference to anti-system radicalisation is small.
“The ‘Sovereign Citizen’ narrative is a ready-made story for those who feel forgotten and ignored: the state is illegitimate, its laws don’t apply, and confrontation with authority is justified,” Ms Levine said.
- Implications: The alleged ‘Sovereign Citizen’ killings in Victoria are not random; they are the sharp edge of a broader democratic fracture.
Ms Levine concluded, “What begins as disaffection and feelings of a “raw deal” can metastasise into movements that openly defy authority.
“Left unaddressed, the alienation identified by Roy Morgan will continue to fuel political unpredictability, undermine democratic stability, and — as this Victorian tragedy shows — erupt with fatal consequences.
“Roy Morgan has been tracking this hidden underbelly for years. It is growing. It is angry. And if it is ignored, it will shape our politics, destabilise our democracy, and, as we have now seen, endanger lives. Australia cannot afford to look the other way.”
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
