Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election

Only nine months before a State Election, Victorian electors are split with One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25.5%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (21.5%). In addition, 13.5% support the Greens and a further 13% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.

If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

Three-Party Preferred result shows the ALP well ahead of One Nation and L-NP Coalition

A three-party preferred result – which incorporates the major party preferences (ALP, L-NP Coalition or One Nation) from supporters of the Greens, minor parties, and Independents, shows the ALP on 44.5%, well ahead of One Nation on 29.5% and the L-NP Coalition on 26%.

Two-Party Preferred results show ALP with narrow leads over One Nation and L-NP Coalition

Roy Morgan has analysed three different two-party preferred results between the ALP and One Nation, ALP and L-NP Coalition, and the L-NP Coalition and One Nation.

The ALP is narrowly preferred to the L-NP Coalition (52% cf. 48%) on a two-party preferred basis, and is slightly more preferred to One Nation: (ALP 52.5% cf. One Nation 47.5%).

Because of the nature of ALP voter preferences, the L-NP Coalition has a significantly larger lead over One Nation as a two-party preferred result between the L-NP Coalition and One Nation, would more strongly favour the L-NP (56% cf. 44%).

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is clearly viewed as a ‘Better Premier’ than incumbent Jacinta Allan

Electors were asked: "Thinking of Premier Jacinta Allan and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson. In your opinion, who would make the better Victorian Premier?"

A narrow majority of 51% of electors selected Opposition Leader Jess Wilson as the ’Better Premier’ compared to 42.5% for incumbent Premier Jacinta Allan, while 6.5% couldn’t say or nominated someone else.

A look at the demographic results shows Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leading amongst men, all four key age groups, in both Melbourne and Country Victoria, and amongst Liberal-National Coalition and One Nation supporters.

Premier Jacinta Allan is regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ by a narrow majority of women, ALP supporters, Greens supporters, and supporters of Independents and Other Parties.

Over two-thirds of Victorian electors disapprove of Premier Jacinta Allan’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Jacinta Allan is handling her job as Premier of Victoria?"

A large majority of 67.5% of electors disapprove of the way Ms. Jacinta Allan is handling her job as Premier of Victoria compared to under a third, 30.5%, that approve, while 2% can’t say.

The electors who disapprove of the job Ms. Allan is doing as Premier of Victoria include a majority of both genders, a majority of all four key age groups, a majority of electors in both Melbourne and Country Victoria, and a majority of L-NP Coalition supporters, One Nation supporters, and supporters of Independents and Other Parties

In contrast, the electors who approve of the job Ms. Allan is doing as Premier of Victoria include a majority of ALP supporters, and a narrow plurality of Greens supporters.

A clear majority of Victorian electors approve of Opposition Leader Jess Wilson’s performance

Electors were asked: "Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Jess Wilson is handling her job as Opposition Leader in Victoria?"

A slim majority of 53% of electors approve of the way Ms. Jess Wilson is handling her job as Opposition Leader in Victoria compared to 42.5%, that disapprove, while 4.5% can’t say.

The electors who approve of the job Ms. Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader include a majority of men, a majority of 18-34 year olds, and those aged 50+, a majority of electors in both Melbourne and Country Victoria, and a majority of L-NP Coalition supporters and One Nation supporters

In contrast, the electors who disapprove of the job Ms. Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader in Victoria include a majority of ALP supporters, Greens supporters and supporters of Independents and Other Parties

This special SMS Roy Morgan survey was conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan Chief Executive Officer Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation, and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.