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PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National’s leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

In June support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 54.5% down 2% since May, but still more than double the support for National on 27%, up only 0.5%, two months before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

The large decline in support for National since being level with Labour on 40% in January prompted the opposition to replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May. The latest results for June show the change in leadership had a negligible impact on support for National and this week Muller resigned after less than two months in the job citing health reasons.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition held strong at 65% in June

In June 65% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 1% since May. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 32%, but up 2% since May.

  • Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was at only 1.5% in June, down 1% since May and down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First dropped below the party vote threshold of 5% in June and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.
  • Greens support was at 9%, up 2% since May and up 2.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.
  • Support for Act NZ increased to 5% in June, up 1.5% since May and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002.

A small minority of 3% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

  • Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up 0.5% to 1.5% in June and the Maori Party was at 1% (down 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating at near record high of 153.5 in June

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 153.5 in June, but down 5pts from 158 in May.

The majority (72%) of New Zealand electors (down 4% since May) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 18.5% (up 1%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

In contrast to decline in the latest Government Confidence Rating the monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating increased by 7.2pts to 104.5 in June and was back above the neutral level of 100 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Although both indices started 2020 in a similar place with Government Confidence at 128.5 in January and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 122.7 – they have moved in opposite directions since.

Government Confidence increased early in the year and peaked in April at a record high of 163, and has since declined 9.5pts, while Consumer Confidence dropped early in the year and hit a ten-year low of 84.8 in the same month and has since increased by 19.7pts over the last two months.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says National’s decision to change leaders in late May has failed to improve their support with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to be re-elected with an increased majority in September:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the strong and decisive leadership of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in leading New Zealand through the COVID-19 pandemic is set to deliver an expanded majority for the Labour Party-led coalition at September’s election.

“Support for the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party was at 54.5% in June and more than double that for the Todd Muller-led National on 27%. Muller has this week decided to resign after replacing former leader Simon Bridges in late May after support for National plunged during the successful response to COVID-19 led by PM Jacinda Ardern.

“Although Labour’s coalition partners NZ First are in danger of missing out on a return to Parliament as their support has dropped to only 1.5%, support for the Greens was up 2% to 9% in June. Perhaps the most surprising result was the increase in support for Act NZ which was at 5% and on track to record its best election result since winning 9 seats at the 2002 election.

“The resignation of Todd Muller as National’s leader only two months before the election leaves the party scrambling to find a new leader with the front-runners being acting leader Nikki Kaye and Shadow Attorney General Judith Collins.

“The results from today’s Roy Morgan Poll show the new leader faces a mountain to climb to challenge a popular Government after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern successfully pegged Muller with National’s failures during his short period in charge.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

NZ First

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

TOP**

Maori Party**

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

13.35

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

4.26

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

10.38

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.72

5.30

39.10

1.51

n/a

2.12

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

4.07

6.72

44.93

3.65

n/a

2.39

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

6.59

11.06

47.31

1.07

n/a

1.43

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

8.66

10.70

47.04

0.69

n/a

1.32

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

7.20

6.27

44.45

0.50

2.44

1.18

1.07

ROY MORGAN POLL

Oct 2-15, 2017

31

6.5

11

46

0.5

2

1.5

1.5

Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017

39.5

5

10

40.5

0.5

2

1.5

1

Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017

37

8

10

40.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

1

Jan 2-28, 2018

42.5

6

9

39

0.5

1.5

1

0.5

2020

January 2020

40

2.5

10.5

40

3

0.5

1.5

2

February 2020

40.5

5

10.5

37

3.5

1.5

1

1

March 2020

42.5

3

11.5

37

3.5

1

0.5

1

April 2020

55

2.5

7

30.5

2.5

0.5

1.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

2.5

7

26.5

3.5

1

1.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

1.5

9

27

5

1.5

1

0.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, NZ First, Greens)

Parliamentary Opposition Parties
(National & Act NZ)

Election, September 23, 2017*

50.36

44.95

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Oct 2-15, 2017

48.5

46.5

NZ First under leader Winston Peters decides to support Labour’s Jacinda Ardern for PM

 

Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017

54.5

41

 

Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017

55

41

 

2020

 

January 2020

53

43

 

February 2020

56

40.5

 

March 2020

57

40.5

 

April 2020

64.5

33

 

National elects new leader Todd Muller to replace Simon Bridges – May 22, 2020

 

May 2020

66

30

 

June 2020

65

32

 

*At the 2017 New Zealand Election the National-led Government returned only two parties (National & Act NZ) who received 44.95% of the vote compared to 50.36% that went to the three Parliamentary Opposition Parties: Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

June 8-21,
2015

June 29-July 12,
2015

Aug 3-16,
2015

Aug 31-Sep 13,
2015

Sep 28-Oct 11,
2015

Oct 26- Nov 8,

2015

Nov 23-Dec 6,
2015

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

62.5

51

54

58

53

60

59.5

Wrong direction

27

33

34

29.5

31

28.5

31

Roy Morgan GCR#

135.5

118

120

128.5

122

131.5

128.5

Can’t say

10.5

16

12

12.5

16

11.5

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

Jan 4-17,
2016

Feb 1-14,
2016

Feb 29-Mar 13,
2016

Apr 4-17,

2016

May 2-15,

2016

May 30-June 12,

2016

Jul 4-17,

2016

Aug 8-21,
2016

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

59.5

56.5

61

57.5

59

54.5

57.5

58

Wrong direction

28

28.5

29

30.5

29

34

30.5

30.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

131.5

128

132

127

130

120.5

127

127.5

Can’t say

12.5

15

10

12

12

11.5

12

11.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

Sep 5-18,

2016

Oct 10-23,

2016

Nov 7-20,

2016

Nov 28-Dec 11,
2016

Jan 3-16,

2017

Jan 30-Feb 12,

2017

Feb 27-Mar 12,

2017

April 3-16,

2017

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

Right direction

52

55.5

65

58.5

63

63.5

61.5

58

 

Wrong direction

35

29

24

27.5

23

23.5

25.5

29

 

Roy Morgan GCR#

117

126.5

141

131

140

140

136

129

 

Can’t say

13

15.5

11

14

14

13

13

13

 

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)

May 1-14,

2017

May 29-Jun 11,
2017

Jun 26-Jul 9,
2017

July 31-Aug 13,
2017

Aug 28-Sep 10,
2017

Oct 2-15,
2017

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

60.5

61.5

63

62.5

62

58.5

Wrong direction

27

27

23.5

23.5

25

27.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

133.5

134.5

139.5

139

137

131

Can’t say

12.5

11.5

13.5

14

13

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)

Oct 30-Nov 12,
2017

Nov 27-Dec 10,
2017

January
2020

February
2020

March
2020

April
2020

May
2020

June
2020

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

66.5

68

58

59

60.5

77

76

72

Wrong direction

20

18

29.5

27

25.5

14

17.5

18.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

146.5

150

128.5

132

135

163

158.5

153.5

Can’t say

13.5

14

12.5

14

14

9

6.5

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

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