The ALP on 58% holds an election-winning lead in Victoria well ahead of the L-NP on 42% on a two-party preferred basis less than three months before the State Election due in late November. A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll taken in mid-August showed the ALP with an even bigger two-party preferred lead: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%.
If a Victorian State Election were held today the ALP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted during the month of August with a representative cross-section of 1,407 Victorian electors aged 18+.
Primary vote for both major parties in Victoria plunges from 2018 State Election
The ALP primary vote is 36.5% (down 6.4% points since the 2018 Victorian Election) but is still well ahead of the L-NP on 29% (down 6.2% points).
Support for the minor parties is up significantly since the 2018 Victorian Election – mirroring the trend seen at the recent Federal Election when 34.1% of Victorians voted for a minor party.
Overall, over a third of Victorians (34.5%) say they will vote for a minor party or independent in the State Election in November. The Greens attract the most support from these voters at 14% (up 3.3% points) and a further 20.5% is spread between an array of minor parties and independents:
One Nation: 2%; Liberal Democrats: 1.5%; Animal Justice Party: 1%; Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party: 0.5%; Shooters, Fishers & Farmer’s Party: 0.5%; Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP): 0.5%; Legalise Cannabis Party: 0.5%; ‘Teal Independents’: 1%; Other Independents: 5.5%; and Other parties: 7.5%.
At the last Victorian State Election in 2018 a total of 11 parties were elected to the Victorian Parliament and three independents.
What concerns electors about a re-elected ALP Government or a new Coalition Government
A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll taken in mid-August asked electors about their concerns about a re-elected ALP Government under Premier Daniel Andrews and their concerns about a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy.
In terms of a re-elected ALP Government led by Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews there were several key themes that emerged including many mentions of allegations of corruption and the personal lack of accountability of Premier Andrews for his actions.
“Corrupt links to big business, developers etc. alongside cuts to health, education and social services during a time of great need.”
“Corrupt deals with the Australian Education Union.”
“Corruption and left-wing communist politics.”
“The lack of accountability of Premier Daniel Andrews and the high and rising debt levels.”
“Daniel Andrews lacks leadership ability. He is never accountable even though he claims ‘the buck stops with him’. If he had integrity he would have resigned by now.”
“He doesn’t accept accountability. When questioned he does not answer truthfully.”
“The lack of accountability in relation to Government spending, addressed by the Auditor-General’s report.”
Many respondents referred to his lack of integrity, his dishonesty and lies while the theme of cost over-runs, reckless spending and high debt levels was also prominent. There were several respondents that described Andrews as ‘arrogant’ and with a ‘dictatorial governing style’ and concerns about the state of health care in Victoria, but the vast majority of ALP supporters said there was ‘nothing’ that concerns them.
“The lack of honesty and integrity with Premier Andrews and his government’s poor memory.”
“The lack of transparency, integrity and responsibility for bad decisions.”
“There’s zero accountability, poor judgment and too many political decisions and appointments. It’s a government of low integrity but made of Teflon! Too many deficiencies to name!!”
“The continued dishonesty and corruption.”
“The dishonesty, corruption and misappropriation of funds.”
“They’re dishonest and not open enough about projects.”
“The cost blowouts on infrastructure and hasn’t addressed issues like Red Shirts and the rorting.”
“The over-running costs on the so-called ‘Big Build’.”
“The spending on mega projects with lower returns in favour of more cost effective projects.”
“The continued cost blowouts on infrastructure and state politics.”
“A combination of corruption, over-spending and arrogance.”
“The Chinese money enables him to spend up big, and now spending more because of an approaching election. He is also very dishonest.”
“The out-of-control spending creating too much debt and the unnecessary building of the rail loop.”
“Spending money we don’t have thereby putting the public into further debt.”
“The state will never recover from the debt and corruption he (Andrews) has caused.”
“The unaccountability, state debt, corruption and union dominance.”
“We have become a police state under Daniel Andrews’ Dictatorship.”
“He’s a dictator. Excessive spending, further lockdowns and no accountability.”
“You can’t trust a dictator who will not answer questions or accept responsibility for failure.”
“It’s his continued dictatorship and his ability to evade judicial processes and scrutiny.”
“His corruption, arrogance, complete lack of respect for the public, cost blowouts, pandering to unions, complete lack of transparency and deflecting of responsibility.”
“The corruption, poor management of projects, not sticking to budgets and his arrogance and bullying.”
“His unfettered arrogance and he doesn’t really care about the people.”
“I would like it if he could find a way to keep these gas prices down and improve the health care system.”
“The lack of progress on environmental issues and the lack of investment and support for hospitals.”
“He needs to sort out corruption issues and factional issues in his party – and also healthcare needs a continued focus.”
“He needs to fix the healthcare system that he helped savage when he was Health Minister.”
In relation to a potential Liberal-National Government led by Matthew Guy the alleged corruption was a major issue that emerged, along with ‘jobs for mates’ and questions regarding his integrity.
Many respondents cited Guy’s lack of experience and general incompetence for leadership as concerns. There were also significant worries about Guy’s weakness as a leader and that he is ‘not strong enough’ as a leader which creates a divided and dysfunctional party.
“It’s a divided party with ‘too right’ members. It’s inexperienced. I would be happier with a Nationals led rather than Liberal State Government.”
“The inexperience of the leader and instability within the coalition ranks.”
“The inexperience and the stupid constant pick pick pick of the stupid media pack. We just gotta bury the hatchet, check their performance to policy and promises and get Victoria away from Andrews.”
“The inexperience, lack of compassion and negativity.”
“The sheer incompetence of the Victorian Liberals. Their foolish moves with Tim Smith and even more foolish moves with Moira Deeming. It’s like they’re handing the election to the ALP. What happened to the Liberals of yore? Leave the nutbags to the independents.”
“They’re untrustworthy, uncaring and incompetent.”
“The consequences of incompetence, poor judgment and disregard for social justice issues.”
“They’re corrupt and incompetence.”
“The corruption and incompetence and general lack of talent in potential ministerial ranks.”
“He’s a weak leader – and he’s corrupt.”
“He has no experience, he’s a weak leader and has no ideas.”
“Weak leadership, dysfunctional party and too pro development.”
There were also concerns about the religious influences within the Liberal Party and respondents also questioned their policies on climate change, first nations reconciliation and the impression the Liberal Party is only out to look out for its mates, the big end of town. A significant number of respondents simply said “everything” concerns them about a potential L-NP Government led by Matthew Guy though most Liberal supporters stuck by their party and said there was ‘nothing’ that concerned them.
“Matthew Guy is corrupt, inexperienced and too close to the right-wing religious groups and anti-vaxxers.”
“Everything! It’s a toxic party with a weak leader being taken over by religious extremists.”
“They would govern in the interests of wealthy donors and the religious right.”
“The lack of clear policy direction and increasingly more influence by the conservative religious right.”
“The lack of any real action on climate change and no sympathy for working people.”
“The state would go backwards in terms of climate change.”
“They will get caught up with the climate change BS.”
“A shift to the right faction thinking, boys club, anti-inclusiveness and anti-first nations support.”
“The state would be more divided and equality issues, first nation reconciliation, climate change, the environment, health and services and the arts will all suffer.”
“They’re a big unknown with possible jobs for mates or other schemes.”
“They won’t look after the public, just their wealthy mates.”
“There’ll be cronyism of employing mates and close links to business promoting self-interest.”
“Everything. They are hopeless and would send money to their mates and totally mismanage the state.”
“I have no idea what they are planning to do if they took power. I don’t feel they have a positive plan for the state. All I have heard is inane and unhelpful commentary during the pandemic and now a litany of staffing issues and short-term fixes.”
“It’s the ‘jobs for mates’ mentality as shown by his recent staffing appointments and demonstrated by the Federal Coalition and also in New South Wales.”
“They won’t run a government, they will only look after their mates.”
“There’s too much support for their big business mates and the wealthy donors.”
“The cronyism of employing mates and close links to business promoting self-interest. The members need to accept the science around climate and vaccines and not try to appeal to ignorant vocal minorities.”
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that despite instituting what many consider the world’s longest lockdown (a total of around 9 months duration during 2020-21), Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is on course to cruise to re-election this November and win a third term:
“The latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted online and via telephone in August shows the ALP on 58% is well ahead of the L-NP on 42% on a two-party preferred basis less than three months out from this year’s Victorian State Election.
“Although Premier Daniel Andrews is set for a comprehensive victory, and a third straight election win, its not all good news with support for both major parties plunging compared to the last Victorian State Election – down by over 5% points for each party.
“The down-trend in support for the major parties matches what happened at the recent Federal Election when both major parties lost support from three years ago and the ALP was able to form government with less than a third of the primary vote – only 32.6%.
“At the Federal Election over a third of Victorians, 34.1%, voted for candidate from other than the two major parties including 13.7% who voted for the Greens and 20.4% who voted for minor parties or independents.
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows around a third of Victorians, 34.5%, planning to vote for a minor party or independent in November. This includes 14% voting for the Greens and a further 20.5% voting for a minor party or independent.
“The minor parties attracting the most support include One Nation with 2% support, the Liberal Democrats on 1.5%, the Animal Justice Party on 1% and three parties on 0.5% support – Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP), Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party and the Legalise Cannabis Party. There are 1% of electors who support the ‘Teal Independents’ another 5.5% who support other independents and 7.5% who support other minor parties.
“Although not all of the minor parties attracting support will win seats in the lower house, Victoria’s Legislative Assembly, there is a good chance many of these parties will win seats in the upper house, the Legislative Council.
“Because of the voting system used in Victoria’s Legislative Council (which is the same as the old Senate voting system used prior to 2016), electors need only number one box ‘above the line’ to register a vote – and the group voting tickets allocated by the parties will do the rest and determine where exactly these preferences flow.
“At the last Victorian State Election in 2018 there were 11 parties elected to Victoria’s Legislative Council including: Labor, Liberal, National, Greens, Justice Party (Derryn Hinch), Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF), Animal Justice Party, Liberal Democrats, Reason Party, Sustainable Australia and Transport Matters on only 0.6% of the state-wide vote.
“Given the fact there have been no changes to Victoria’s voting system in the last four years we can expect many of these parties to mount serious challenges for retaining their seats in the Victorian Legislative Council this November.”
This special Roy Morgan Poll multi-mode poll was conducted via telephone and online interviewing with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,407 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted during the month of August 2022.
To purchase full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention, Approval or Disapproval of Premier Daniel Andrews, Better Premier between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions regarding concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews or a potential Liberal-National Government led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy for $9,800 contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.
By Email: email@example.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
“If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?”
Victorian Primary Voting Intention – Trends.
|Victorian Electors 18+|
|Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022||Aug 11-13, 2022||August
|Animal Justice Party||1.8||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||1|
|Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party||0.7||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||0.5|
|UAP: United Australia Party||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||3||4||2||2||0.5|
|Legalise Cannabis Party||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||n/a||0.5|
*August 2022 results are from Roy Morgan surveys done throughout the month of August via online and telephone interviewing.
Previous results for September 2020 – August 11-13, 2022 are from Roy Morgan Snap SMS surveys.
Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.
|Victorian Electors 18+|
|Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022||Aug 11-13, 2022||August
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|