November 15, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.1pts to 80.8 – the weekly increase halts a run of six straight declines

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9110
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.1pts to 80.8 this week and is now 25.2pts below the same week a year ago, November 13/14, 2021 (106.0). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 8.6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.4.

Although the wider move in Consumer Confidence was up this week there were mixed results around the nation. The two larger States of NSW and Queensland increased this week, Victoria was unchanged while the index was down in Western Australia and South Australia.

Across the index the two questions that drove the weekly increase related to personal financial situations and the Australian economic performance going forward over the next year.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 21% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 46% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 31% (up 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 35% (down 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to almost two-fifths, 39% (down 4ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has slightly improved this week with 12% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 20% (down 1ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while more than twice as many, 50% (unchanged), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

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Consumer confidence edged up 2.7% last week, its first weekly increase since late September. The subindices that capture the prospects over the next year drove the increase, with 31% (+1.3ppt) of respondents expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and 8% (+1.4ppt) expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year. The subindex related to whether it is a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ bucked the improvement and has fallen five times over the past six weeks, for a cumulative loss of 13%. The lift in confidence doesn’t change the fact it remains at a level not matched since the early 1990s recession, putting aside the early pandemic period. But it also remains the fact that household spending has held up despite the weakness in sentiment. Whether this disconnect can continue is a central issue for policy makers.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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