New Zealand: Labour support increased in January even before Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for January 2023 shows support increased for the governing Labour Party in January, up 2.5% points to 30% - even before former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her intention to resign on Thursday January 19.

New Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was sworn into the top job a week later and given over 80% of this months Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll was conducted before Hipkins became Prime Minister, there is not enough data yet available to draw any early conclusions on his leadership or whether the change in leadership has made a difference.

Nevertheless, the increase in support for Labour in January has increased support for the party to its highest since August 2022 and closed the gap significantly on the main opposition National.

Support for the governing Labour/ Greens coalition was on 42% in January 2023 (up 3.5% points on December 2022) with support for the Greens also increasing, up 1% point to 12%.

In contrast, the main Opposition National has lost support in January, down 3% points to 32% and support for Act NZ was down by 1% point to 13.5%. Combined support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition is therefore down 4% points to 45.5% - the lowest combined support since October 2022.

Maori Party and New Zealand First set to hold the ‘balance of power’ on current results

The results for January suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and this is due to increasing support for both the Maori Party and New Zealand First – now at 5% support for the first time since the last election.

Support for New Zealand First has increased by 1% point to 5%, its highest level of support for three years since February 2020. Support for the Maori Party has also increased, up 0.5% points to 4.5%.

A further 3% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, down 1% point from a month ago including 1.5% (down 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 0.5% (down 0.5% point) who support the New Conservative Party.

57 seats for National/ Act NZ and 52 seats for Labour/ Greens leave both short of a majority

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would likely secure 57 seats in the new Parliament compared to 52 seats for Labour/Greens – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.

The projected results show both New Zealand First, with 6 seats, and the Maori Party, with 5 seats, would have the balance of power in the new Parliament. Either New Zealand First or the Maori Party could provide National and Act NZ with a working majority or if both parties supported Labour and the Greens we would have a re-elected Hipkins-led Government continuing for a third term.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 948 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 4%, up 1% point, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 16pts to 91 in January

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped by 16pts to 91 in January – its highest level since October 2022 (92). This was the biggest monthly increase in the Government Confidence Rating since a leap of 28 points in April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In January 2023 a clear plurality of 49% (down 8% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to two-fifths, 40% (up 8% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 9.6pts to 83.4 and is now just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 86.8 on January 23-29, 2023.

Men heavily favour a National/Act NZ coalition while women are split by age

48.5% of men support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition – a sizeable gap of 13.5% points over the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 35%.

There was a small margin of under 5% points for men aged 18-49 with 41.5% supporting National/Act NZ compared to 39% supporting Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was a much larger gap with a majority of 56.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 30.5% for Labour/ Greens.

Women are more evenly split with a slight advantage to the current governing Labour/Greens coalition (48.5%) ahead of a potential National/ Act NZ coalition (42%) – a margin of 6.5% points in favour of the incumbent government.

In fact, the support of women between the two sides is split by age. A clear majority of women aged 18-49 support the governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 53.5% compared to 38% who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition. In contrast, women aged 50+ narrowly favour the opposition with 46.5% in support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition compared to 43% who support the governing Labour/Greens coalition.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Nearly one-in-five women aged 18-49 (18.5%) and around one-in-seven men aged 18-49 (14.5%) support the Greens compared to only 4.5% of women aged 50+ and 6.5% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 4.5% of men including 6% support from men aged 18-49 but only 3% support from men aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of 4% of women including 3.5% of women aged 18-49 and 4.5% of women aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 62.5 in January

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating recovered in January with strong increases – especially for younger women and men aged 18-49.

Among women overall now a plurality of 44.5% (down 11% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 42% (up 8% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 97.5 (up 19pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 soared by 27pts to 108.5 while it increased by 10.5pts to 85.5 for women aged 50+.

A slim majority of men, 54% (down 5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while over a third of men, 37.5% (up 7.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 83.5 (up 12.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 leapt by 31.5pts to 102.5 while for older men aged 50+ it was virtually unchanged at only 62.5.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decision to resign in mid-January has thrown a large degree of uncertainty into the contest at this year’s New Zealand Election – with either side of politics capable of emerging victorious:

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – January 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 935.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

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