April 04, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.6pts to 78.2 this week; fifth week in a row below 80 is the first time since 1990-91

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9200
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.6pts to 78.2 this week, however this is the fifth week in a row the index has been below the mark of 80 – the first time this has happened since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008.

The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least five weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis. Consumer Confidence is now 15.2pts below the same week a year ago, March 28 – April 3, 2022 (93.4) and 3.5pts below the 2023 weekly average of 81.4.

Consumer Confidence was mixed around the country this week and was driven upwards by a significant increase in New South Wales following the State Election in that State and was also up in WA and SA. In contrast, Consumer Confidence was down in Victoria and Queensland.

Views on personal finances were mixed this week and it was improving sentiment in regards to the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and five years that drove the index up.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to a majority of 52% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, under a third of Australians, 32% (up 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over a third, 35% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over a third, 36% (down 4ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 12% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 20% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while over half, 53% (unchanged), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence remained below 80pts for a fifth consecutive week, the longest time below 80pts since the start of the weekly series in October 2008. Confidence among those paying off their mortgage fell 2.1pts to 70.5 ahead of the April RBA meeting, bringing mortgaged homeowner confidence to 7.2pts below average confidence for all cohorts. Confidence in financial conditions, particularly current financial conditions, is now trending lower than it was during the initial COVID outbreak, as ongoing inflation and the rapid rise in the cash rate bites household budgets. Confidence that ‘it is a good time to buy a major household item’ declined 1.4pts and was below 70 for an eighth straight week.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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