ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.8pts to 74.1 before the RBA meets on interest rates
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 0.8pts to 74.1 this week. The index has now spent eighteen straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least eighteen weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.
Consumer Confidence is now 9.6pts below the same week a year ago, June 27 – July 3, 2022 (83.7) and 4.7pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.8. Looking around the States there were again mixed results with Consumer Confidence down in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, but up in WA and SA.
Driving the index down this week were negative moves for personal finances compared to a year ago and views on the longer-term prospects for the Australian economy.
Current financial conditions
- Now only 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 56% (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the equal record high for this indicator).
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 28% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while two-fifths, 40% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over two-fifths, 43% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 10% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the equal lowest figure for this indicator for over 30 years since August 1989) compared to just over a fifth, 23% (up 3ppts), expecting ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over three years since August 2020).
Time to buy a major household item
- Sentiment regarding to buying intentions is slightly better this week with 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a clear majority of 52% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell last week ahead of the RBA July meeting. The four-week average level of confidence was the second-worst result in the last 30 years, second only to the first four weeks of the pandemic. Both ‘current’ and ‘future financial conditions’ remain persistently weak as inflation expectations hit their highest four-week average of 2023. Those paying off their own homes continue to have the lowest confidence, 6pts below the average for all survey participants.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
