Roy Morgan Research
June 27, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.5pts to 74.9 – biggest weekly increase since the first week of January 2023

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9260
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 2.5pts to 74.9 this week – the largest increase since the first week of the year. Despite the increase, the index has now spent seventeen straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least seventeen weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 9.8pts below the same week a year ago, June 20-26, 2022 (84.7) and 4.1pts below the 2023 weekly average of 79.0. Looking around the States there were again mixed results with Consumer Confidence up in NSW and Queensland, but down in Victoria, WA and SA.

There were positive moves for personal finances and views on the longer-term prospects for the Australian economy this week with other indices largely unchanged.

Current financial conditions

  • Now only 20% of Australians (up 5ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 55% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 28% (up 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while over two-fifths, 41% (up 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator for well over 30 years since August 1989).

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (up 1 ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to over two-fifths, 43% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term remains very weak with only 12% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to around a fifth, 20% (down 3ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Sentiment regarding to buying intentions is unchanged this week with 20% (unchanged) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a clear majority of 53% (unchanged), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

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Consumer confidence rose last week but was still below 80 for the 17th straight week, the longest it has been this low since the 1990-91 recession. Confidence in ‘Future financial conditions’ fell to its weakest since March 2020, ahead of the RBA July meeting, which we expect will include a cash rate increase. Perhaps related to shaky financial confidence, inflation expectations jumped 0.4ppt to 5.9%, its highest since mid-March. But ‘Future economic conditions’ confidence was at its highest in four weeks. Confidence fell among those paying off their homes, who continue to have much lower confidence than renters and outright owners (the highest-confidence cohort).

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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