Roy Morgan Research
June 30, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 6.3pts to 85.5 in June

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 9271
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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 6 points in June to 85.5, still a very low level, but the highest read since January 2022 last year - around 18 months ago.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a 'good time to buy a major household item', a key retail indicator, was up 1% point to 25% in June while there was a significant decline in those saying it is a 'bad time to buy', down 5% points to 53% - leading to a net improvement in the indicator of 7 points to -27.
  • Inflation expectations dropped sharply from 4.8% to 4.3%. Consumers don’t get to set prices but they are half of the wage-negotiation process, so the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be very pleased to see that.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index jumped in June, while remaining very subdued.

Turning to the detail:

  • Net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 4 points from -20% to-24% with 23% (down 2% points) saying they are 'better off' financially than this time last year while 47% (up 2% points) say they are 'worse off' financially.
  • A net 11% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, up 6 points from May including 37% (up 3% points) who expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year and only 25% (down 3% points) who expect to be 'worse off' financially.
  • A net 27% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, however this is still a 7 point improvement on a month ago with a majority of 53% (down 5% points) saying now is a 'bad time to buy a major household item' compared to 25% (up 1% point) who say it is a 'good time to buy a major household item'.
  • Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time lifted 9 points to -34%. The 5-year-ahead measure jumped from net -12% to +1% - an improvement of 13 points.
  • House price inflation expectations jumped from 0.4% to 1.6%. They are strongest in Auckland (13.1% versus 1.5% last month) but are now positive everywhere.
  • One-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell back from 4.8% to 4.3%, a sharp fall that the RBNZ will be pleased to see.

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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