Roy Morgan Research
July 28, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 83.7 in July

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 9291
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.8 points in July to 83.7, with the fall driven by the question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which fell from a net figure of -27% to -39%. That doesn’t bode well for retailers.

Inflation expectations bounced back almost completely from their sharp fall last month, rising from 4.3% back up to 4.7% – still trending lower, however, and well off their high of over 6% in late-2021.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased slightly in July, and remains at low levels.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current personal financial situations eased 1 point to a net -25%.
  • A net 11% expect to be better off this time next year, unchanged.
  • A net 39% think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, a sharp 12-point fall, to be back around its lows (excluding lockdowns). That’s the best spending indicator in the survey, and suggests consumers are indeed “cooling their jets”.
  • Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time lifted 2 points to a net -32%. The 5-year-ahead measure also lifted 2 points to a net +3%.
  • House price inflation expectations lifted from 1.6% to 1.9%. Expectations are strongest in Canterbury (4.4%) but are at least 1% everywhere.
  • Headline confidence would have fallen by more were it not for a sharp lift in Canterbury, which saw a sharp lift across all questions except for whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item.
  • Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations jumped back from 4.3% to 4.7%, but the trend remains downward.

Households are being buffeted currently, with headwinds outweighing tailwinds. The cost of living is an obvious headwind, though this shouldn’t be overstated, insofar as average incomes have broadly kept pace. The rapid rise in mortgage rates and the ongoing rollover from lower rates is another clear headwind.

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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