Roy Morgan Research
July 25, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 2.6pts to 75.2 after decision to replace RBA boss Phil Lowe with Michele Bullock

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9280

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 2.6pts to 75.2 this week – to its highest since early June. The index has now spent twenty-one straight weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest stretch below 80 since the index began being conducted on a weekly basis in October 2008. The last time Consumer Confidence spent at least twenty-one weeks under 80 was during the 1990-91 recession when the index was conducted on a monthly basis.

Consumer Confidence is now 7.2pts below the same week a year ago, July 18-24, 2022 (82.4) and 3.1pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.3. Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and WA, but down slightly in South Australia.

Driving the index up this week were increases in positive sentiment in regards to personal finances compared to a year ago and over the next year.

Current financial conditions

  • Now a fifth of Australians, 20% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 53% (down 4ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, just under a third of Australians, 30% (up 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while just over a third, 36% (down 4ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to two-fifths, 40% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has weakened with only 9% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the lowest figure for this indicator for over 30 years since December 1990) compared to just over a fifth, 21% (unchanged), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Sentiment regarding to buying intentions is virtually unchanged this week with 18% (unchanged) of Australians, who now say it is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a clear majority of 57% (unchanged), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose last week, mostly due to an increase in renter confidence. Among the housing cohorts, confidence jumped 7.9pts for those renting, perhaps due to discourse around rent increases slowing as rate increases slow, or potential rental policy changes. It rose slightly by 0.9pts for those paying off their homes, while it softened 0.7pts for those who own their homes outright. The average confidence level was at its highest since the first week of June but has now stayed below the 80 mark for 21 weeks – one week shy of the record in the 1990–91 recession.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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