Roy Morgan Research
January 09, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3pts to 84.8 to start 2024 with the traditional New Year ‘bounce’

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9390
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3pts to 84.8 in the first week of 2024, taking the index to its highest since early February 2023.

Consumer Confidence started 2024 8.4pts higher than a month ago in early December and is now nearly 7pts above the 2023 weekly average of 78.0.

However, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 47 straight weeks below the mark of 85 and is 2.6pts lower than the same week a year ago, January 2-8, 2023 (87.4)

There were mixed results around the States with Consumer Confidence up in the larger States of NSW, Victoria and Queensland but down slightly in Western Australia and South Australia.

The drivers of this week’s increase were improved buying intention in the post-Christmas sales period as well as less concern about the economy’s performance over the next year and next five years.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions were improved this week with 25% (up 4ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since January 2023) while a minority of 46% (down 5ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since January 2023).

Current economic conditions

  • A slightly increased 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (incredibly, this is the highest figure for this indicator for well over 18 months since April 2022 – just before the RBA first raised interest rates) compared to fewer than a third, 32% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since January 2023).

Future economic conditions

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved to start 2024 with 15% (up 3ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the highest figure for this indicator for over 15 months since September 2022) compared to under a fifth, 18% (down 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since March 2023).

Current financial conditions

  • When asked about their families, only 19% (down 1ppt) now say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (up 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, 34% (unchanged), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the equal highest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since January 2023) while 32% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since January 2023).

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence started the year at its highest level since late January 2023. While elevated consumer confidence is typical for early January, this represented the third-largest January jump (compared to the prior year’s Q4 average) in the last 15 years. Renter confidence is trending sideways, but there have been sharp increases in the four-week average confidence of outright homeowners and indebted homeowners, likely due to rising housing prices and more stable rates. We expect consumer confidence to lift meaningfully closer to the long-term average once inflation shows further signs of declining.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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