Roy Morgan Research
December 12, 2023

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumps 4.4pts to 80.8 after the RBA leaves interest rates unchanged – the highest for over ten months since early February 2023

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9380
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 4.4pts to 80.8 this week after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at last week’s final meeting for the year. However, despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 45 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.1pts below the same week a year ago, December 5-11, 2022 (82.9) and nearly 3 points above the 2023 weekly average of 77.8.

Looking around the States Consumer Confidence was up in most States including New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia, but down slightly in South Australia.

The drivers of this week’s strong increase related to views on personal financial situations and the Australian economy’s performance whereas buying sentiment was virtually unchanged.

Current financial conditions

  • Now over a fifth of Australians, 22% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the highest figure for this indicator for over nine months since February 2023) compared to a slim majority of 51% (down 6ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, nearly a third of Australians, 31% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 33% (down 3ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over ten months since January 2023).

Current economic conditions

  • A slightly increased 9% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (incredibly, this is the highest figure for this indicator for over 18 months since May 2022 – just after the RBA first raised interest rates) compared to over a third, 36% (down 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has improved this week with 13% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to under a fifth, 18% (down 4ppts), expecting ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over nine months since early March 2023).

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions were virtually unchanged this week with 20% (unchanged) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while a slim majority of 53% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:

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Homeowners seem to be buoyed by rising home prices and the stable cash rate after the RBA left the cash rate on hold last week. ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose to its highest since February 2023 driven by stronger confidence among homeowners (both indebted and outright owners). Inflation expectations are at their second-lowest result in six months, and confidence about the economy has improved markedly. Economic confidence about the coming year hit its second-highest level since February and confidence about the economy over the five-year horizon hit its best result since March. But a large share of households still do not think it is a good time to buy a household item, despite seasonal discounting.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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