Roy Morgan Research
December 18, 2023

Roy Morgan Federal voting intention poll shows two major parties ‘dead-locked’ at Christmas: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9418
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The ALP on 50% (down 1%) is now ‘dead-locked’ with the Coalition on 50% (up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the final Roy Morgan survey on Federal voting intention for 2023.

If an election were held now we would have a hung parliament with the minor parties and independents controlling the balance of power.

The primary vote of both major parties improved this week with the Coalition now on 38%, up 1% from a week ago well ahead of the ALP on 32%, up 1.5%.

The Greens are down 2.5% to 11.5% and One Nation is down 0.5% to 4.5%. Support for Independents increased 1.5% to 9%, but support was down 1% to 5% for Other Parties.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,720 Australian electors from December 11-17, 2023.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email meljm@roymorgan.com.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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