Prabowo wins Indonesian Presidency as surge in support shown by Roy Morgan continued to grow until election day
The final Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidential Election showed support continuing to grow for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto early in 2024.
Subianto won an estimated 57% of the vote in Wednesday’s vote ahead of runner-up Anies Baswedan on 25% and third-placed Ganjar Pranowo on 17%.
The Roy Morgan Poll for September quarter 2023 showed Prabowo with 30% support and in second place. The next Roy Morgan Poll showed Prabowo’s support increasing rapidly, by 13% points, to 43% in December, after Prabowo recruited incumbent President Joko Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming to be his vice-presidential running mate in late October.
The surge in support for Prabowo, after recruiting Gibran, continued in 2024 with Prabowo’s support increasing another 3% to 46% in January and then another 11% points to 57% on election day – almost doubling Prabowo’s support since September.
The Roy Morgan Polls for December 2023 and January 2024 picked up this surge in support for Prabowo and we remarked that ‘Prabowo (was) closing in on a first-round victory in the Presidential election’ – which proved to be correct.
The surge in support for Prabowo during the final months of the Indonesian Presidential election campaign mirrors what happened in the 2019 Australian Federal Election. The ALP enjoyed a consistent lead in Roy Morgan polling between 2016 and 2019.
However, as the 2019 Federal Election campaign began, the Coalition began to increase their support and close the gap. This trend continued throughout the campaign and the Coalition managed to retain government and win a narrow majority of one seat on election day as their support continued to increase.
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| Michele Levine: | +61 3 9224 5215 | +61 411 129 093 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
