Roy Morgan Research
May 07, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.6 points to 80.5 before the Reserve Bank meets on interest rates

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9475
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.6pts to 80.5 this week. The index has now spent a record 66 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.8 points above the same week a year ago, May 1-7, 2023 (77.7), and 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.6.

Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

Driving the weekly decrease in Consumer Confidence was deteriorating confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year.

Current financial conditions

  • Now a fifth of Australians, 20% (up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 51% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.

Future financial conditions

  • Views on personal finances over the next year this week were marginally improved with 32% (up 1ppt), expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while another 33% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Short-term economic confidence

  • Under one-in-ten Australians, 9% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to just over a third, 35% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.

Medium-term economic confidence

  • Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term also deteriorated this week with 10% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year) compared to over a fifth, 21% (up 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Net buying intentions were marginally down this week with 21% (unchanged) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 49% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Economist, Madeline Dunk, commented:

Block Quote

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence declined 0.6pts last week and the four-week moving average fell to its lowest level since early January. The weakness in confidence may have been influenced by discussion that the RBA could raise rates this year or that rate cuts may be delayed. Households’ assessment of the economic outlook has softened throughout the year. Confidence in the 12-month outlook for the economy declined to its lowest level this year, and confidence in the five-year outlook recorded its second lowest reading since December.

Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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