Roy Morgan Research
March 12, 2024

ALP support drops after Dunkley by-election: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9487
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Support for the ALP has decreased 2% to 51.5% ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the Albanese Government would likely be re-elected but forced into minority government with the support of minor parties and independents the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

There was a swing to the Coalition in all six States with the biggest swings in Victoria. The swing to the Coalition came after Victoria’s mid-year financial report showed Victoria’s government debt had increased by around $12 billion to more than $126 billion – and with that number set to double in the next three years according to global ratings agency S&P.

Primary support for Coalition increased 1.5% to 38% while support for the ALP was down 2% to 32%.

Support for the Greens dropped 0.5% to 13%, One Nation support increased 0.5% to 4%, support for Independents was up 0.5% to 9% and support for Other Parties was unchanged at 4%.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,714 Australian electors from March 4-10, 2024.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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