Roy Morgan Research
May 27, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 2.8 pts to 84.9 in May

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9568

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 2.8 points in May, perhaps as the shock of the “recession” headlines wore off somewhat.

  • That said, 84.9 is a very weak level, with the historical average sitting above 110.
  • Possibly also contributing to the lift in confidence, inflation expectations eased from 4.4% to 3.8%, the lowest read since October 2020. Expected house price inflation eased from 3.5% to 3.2%.

Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the PDF):

• The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions lifted 5 points to 90, while the current conditions index was unchanged at 78.

• Net perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 2 points to -15%, continuing to recover from the sharp fall seen in March with 25% (up 3% points) of respondents saying they are 'Better Off' financially than this time last year compared to 40% (up 1% points) saying they are 'Worse Off' financially.

• A net 6% of respondents expect to be 'Better Off' financially this time next year, up 1 point from a month ago.

• A net 29% of respondents think it’s a 'Bad Time to Buy a Major Household Item', down 1 point from a month ago.

• Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time rose points to -36% with 13% (up 2% points) saying they expect 'Good Times' economically over the next year compared to 49% (down 2% points) saying they expect 'Bad Times' economically. The 5-year-ahead measure rose 8 points to -2% with 24% (up 3% points) expecting 'Good Times' economically over the next five years compared to 25% (down 6% points) expecting 'Bad Times' economically over the next five years.

• House price inflation expectations eased from 3.5% to 3.2% year-over-year. This indicator doesn’t lead house prices, but nonetheless could impact decisions about large purchases.

• Encouragingly for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell from 4.4% to 3.8%, close to the post-2010 average of 3.7%, and closing in on the pre-Covid average of 3.5%.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence plummeted when inflation took off, then recovered as inflation fell – until recession headlines came along and caused another drop. Not all moves in Consumer Confidence are equally significant. The falls that appear to have been caused by inflation overstated the decline in spending (figure 2 in the PDF), but insofar as recent falls likely reflect weaker job security, they likely do indicate that tough times are set to continue for the retail sector over the coming months.

A net 29% of consumers report that it’s a 'Bad Time to Purchase a Major Household Item', and weakness in these spending categories has been evident in our card spending data for some time. This wariness is evident around the country (figure 3 of the PDF).

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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