Roy Morgan Research
March 28, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 8.1 pts to 86.4 in March

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9499
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The steady improvement in ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence over recent months took a blow this month.

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 8.1 points in March to 86.4, with a fall across most questions, likely affected by recession headlines. Late-month responses were markedly weaker than those that preceded the GDP data.
  • Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5%, while expected house price inflation fell from 4.1% to 3.4%. This series has no predictive power for house prices, but is a lens on the “wealth effect” on spending.

Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the PDF):

  • The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 8 points to 93, while the current conditions index fell 9 points to 76.
  • The net perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 11 points to -23% with 20% of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially than this time a year ago, down 4% points on February, while a rising 44%, up 7% points, say they are 'worse off' with the net result back where it was in September last year.
  • A net 19% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up 1 point on a month ago.
  • A net 24% of respondents think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 6 points, bringing to an end a steady run of improvement.
  • The net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time dropped a sharp 14 points to -34% with only 12% (down 8% points) of respondents expecting 'good times' for the New Zealand economy over the next year and almost half, 46% (up 6% points) expecting 'bad times'. The 5-year-ahead measure dropped 10 points and into negative territory for the first time since May 2023 at only -5%. This includes 22% (down 7% points) who expect 'good times' for the economy over the next five years and 28% (up 3% points) who expect 'bad times'.
  • House price inflation expectations fell from 4.1% to 3.4% year-over-year. They are strongest in Canterbury (3.9%) and weakest in the rest of the South Island (2.7%).
  • Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5%.

News that the economy re-entered recession in the second half of last year appears to have hit Consumer Confidence hard. Only around half of the week 4 survey responses will have come in after GDP data was released on 21 March, but the responses for that week overall were notably lower. That said, the preceding weeks were also softer than February, so the monthly fall in confidence isn’t just about recession headlines.

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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