Roy Morgan Research
April 26, 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 4 pts to 82.1 in April

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9519

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence deteriorated in April, led by a pessimistic turn in the forward-looking components of the survey.

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points to 82.1, close to lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis, but still slightly above the more recent pandemic lows.
  • Wellington led the monthly deterioration in confidence and is the most downbeat region overall, with the lowest inflation expectations and the second-lowest willingness to buy a major household item.
  • Nationwide, inflation expectations eased from 4.5% to 4.4%, while expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.5%

Turning to the detail (for charts see page 5 of the PDF):

•The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 8 points to 85, while the current conditions index lifted 1 point to 78.

•Net perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 6 points to -17% with 22% (up 2ppts) of New Zealanders saying they are 'better off' financially than this time last year while 39% (down 5% points) now say they are 'worse off' financially, a partial rebound from last month’s 11-point decline.

•A net 5% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year including 34% (down 9ppts) of New Zealanders expecting to be 'better off' financially compared to 29% (up 5ppts) expecting to be 'worse off', down 14 points from a month ago.

•A net 28% of New Zealanders think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 4 points and extending last month’s 6-point decline.

•Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time dropped a further 6 points to -40% with only 11% (down 1ppt) expecting 'good times' for the economy over the next year compared to a majority of 51% (up 5ppts) who expect 'bad times'. The net result for the 5-year-ahead measure of confidence in the New Zealand economy dropped 5 points to -10%.

•House price inflation expectations lifted from 3.4% to 3.5% year-over-year.

•Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations fell from 4.5% to 4.4%, well off their high (6.2% in October 2021) but still a decent clip above the historical average (3.7%).

New Zealand Consumer Confidence has been on the slide in recent months. Last month we noted that the portion of responses that came in after Q4 GDP release on 21 March (showing a technical recession)were notably more pessimistic. April’s survey now fully reflects the Q4 GDP outturn, and the recession headlines that followed.  Wellington experienced the sharpest deterioration in confidence in April and is the most downbeat region overall (both in an absolute sense and relative to its historical average, figure 2)

Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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