RBA interest rate ‘bounce’ in February is short-lived as ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.1pts to 87.7
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.1pts to 87.7 this week after a significant increase the week before following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut official interest rates.
The upward momentum following the interest rate cut wasn’t maintained. The last time the Reserve Bank cut interest rates, on November 4, 2020, Consumer Confidence increased for two straight weeks, and for five of the six weeks following the interest rate cut.
Consumer Confidence is now 6.1 points above the same week a year ago, February 26 – March 4, 2024 (81.0), but only 0.6 points above the 2025 weekly average of 87.1.
A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows decreases in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, but small increases in Victoria and South Australia.
A look across the index shows decreasing confidence about personal financial situations drove about three-quarters of this week’s decrease and views on Australia’s economy also weakened.
Current financial conditions
- More than a fifth of Australians, 23% (up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 47% (up 3ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Future financial conditions
- Views on personal finances over the next year weakened significantly this week (after being the biggest positive driver a week ago) with 34% of respondents, (down 3ppts), expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 29% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. It is worth noting that this index remains the only one of the five in positive territory – for every week this year.
Short-term economic confidence
- Views on the economy over the next year were virtually unchanged this week with one-in-ten Australians, 10% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 26% (unchanged), that expect ‘bad times’.
Medium-term economic confidence
- Net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term weakened slightly this week with just 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to under a fifth, 18% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- There was virtually no change in net buying intentions this week with only 24% (unchanged) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the equal lowest figure for this indicator since before the Black Friday sales period) compared to 44% (unchanged) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 2.1pts last week to 87.7pts, but the series is still up 2.6pts in the past fortnight, since the RBA’s 25bp rate cut. All subindices recorded a decline in the week. Last week’s data showing weak investment intentions and lower-than-expected non-residential construction work done may have dampened confidence regarding economic conditions.
Weekly inflation expectations rose to 4.5% last week despite the January monthly CPI indicator steadying at 2.5% y/y. On a four-week moving average basis, the series has gradually lowered from 5.1% to 4.6%, its lowest level so far this year.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
