ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week before the RBA meets today to consider interest rates
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 0.5pts to 88.8 in the week before the Reserve Bank (RBA) meeting today to consider interest rates. The RBA is widely expected to reduce interest rates later today to below 4%.
Consumer Confidence is 6.8 points above the same week a year ago, May 13-19, 2024 (82.0) and 2.4pts above the 2025 weekly average of 86.4.
An analysis by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence rising in Queensland and South Australia, but down slightly in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.
A look across the index shows mixed results with the biggest driver of the increase being the positive improvement in buying sentiment – now at its highest net rating so far this year.
Just under a fifth of Australians, 18% (unchanged), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 41% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Net views on personal finances over the next year dropped slightly this week with nearly a third, 30% (unchanged) of respondents, expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Views on the economy over the next year were one of the biggest drivers of the weekly increase with almost one-in-seven Australians, 14% (up 1ppt), expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (the highest figure for this indicator for over three years since February 2022) compared to 24% (down 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over three years since February 2022).
However, net sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer-term deteriorated this week with 14% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to nearly a quarter, 23% (up 3ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions improved for a second straight week ahead of today’s Reserve Bank meeting with 23% (up 3ppts) of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 37% (up 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rose 0.5pts last week to 88.8pts. Across the subindices, household economic confidence in the next year recorded the largest increase, and on a 4-week moving average basis, this subindex is now at its highest level since early May 2022, prior to the beginning of the RBA’s hiking cycle. The lift in this series may be supported by the de-escalation in US-China trade tensions last week. Domestic data pointing to solid wage growth in Q1 and a resilient labour market may also be drivers.
We continue to expect a 25bp cut by the RBA at its meeting this week. Rate cuts flowing through to household disposable incomes should support upward momentum in ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence this year but may be softened by global uncertainty.”
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
