ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.1pts to 86.5 after the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at 3.85%
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.1pts to 86.5 this week after the Reserve Bank decided to leave official interest rates unchanged last week at 3.85%. Consumer Confidence is 8 points above the same week a year ago, July 8-14, 2024 (78.5) and in line with the 2025 weekly average of 86.6.
An analysis by State shows mixed results with Consumer Confidence down in Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia, but up in South Australia and Queensland.
This week’s decrease was driven by less confidence about Australia’s economic performance over the next year and next five years.
Over a fifth of Australians, 21% (up 1ppt), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 44% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Net views on personal finances over the next year were virtually unchanged this week with 30% (up 1ppt) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year worsened this week with just 11% (unchanged) of Australians, expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to nearly a third, 30% (up 3ppts), that expect ‘bad times’.
In addition, views regarding the Australian economy in the longer-term also dropped this week with 12% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to nearly a quarter, 24% (up 3ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions was virtually unchanged this week with a quarter of respondents, 25% (unchanged) saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 35% (up 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
The RBA held the cash rate at 3.85% last week, surprising the market and us. This decision is likely behind the 2.1pt fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence.
While the previous upward trend in Consumer Confidence is stalled for now, we expect a resumption of the improvement this year, as robust yearly growth in disposable incomes and further rate cuts (we expect 25bp cuts in August and November) flow through to households.
Mortgage holder confidence was steady last week despite the surprise hold by the RBA, though previous rate cuts this year have lifted mortgage-holder confidence and seem to have eased outright owner confidence. Outright owners are more likely to benefit from higher interest rates as they are more likely to be net savers.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
