ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 1.2pts to 85.1 after Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 1.2pts to 85.1 after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.6% last week. Consumer Confidence is now 1.6 points above the same week a year ago, September 30 – October 6, 2024 (83.5), and 1.7pts below the 2025 weekly average of 86.8.
An analysis by State shows mixed results with declines in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, only partially offset by small increases in New South Wales and South Australia.
There were small declines across all five components of the indices.
Just a fifth of Australians, 20% (down 2ppts), say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 41% (down 1ppt) that say their families are ‘worse off’.
Net views on personal finances over the next year declined marginally with 26% (down 3ppts) of respondents expecting their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 31% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’.
Net sentiment regarding the economy over the next year deteriorated slightly this week with just 9% (down 1ppt) of Australians, expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to almost a third, 30% (up 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Net views regarding the Australian economy in the longer-term were virtually unchanged this week, with 12% (up 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to over a quarter, 27% (up 2ppts), expecting ‘bad times’.
Net buying intentions were slightly down this week with 22% (down 1ppt) of respondents saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items compared to 34% (up 1ppt) that say now is a ‘bad time to buy major household items’.
ANZ Economist, Sophia Angala, commented:
The RBA Board held the cash rate at 3.60% last week, with the post-meeting commentary a little more hawkish than we expected. This was likely a factor in the week’s 1.2pt fall in ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence.
On a four-week moving average basis, weekly inflation expectations are at their highest level since late January. This may have been influenced by the RBA’s post-meeting statement noting that Q3 inflation may come in higher than RBA expectations. We now expect a 0.9% q/q increase in trimmed mean (underlying) inflation in Q3, which suggests the RBA will hold the cash rate for the remainder of the year.
We now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate by 25bp in February 2026, and for the cash rate to then stay at 3.35% for an extended period. The absence of a widely anticipated rate cut later this year could see a slowing of the consumer recovery.
Check out the latest results for our weekly surveys on Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence, and Voting Intention as follows:
Roy Morgan Business Confidence Statistics
ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Statistics
Federal Voting – Government Confidence Rating
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
