Steph Hunt (Melbourne) and Aaron Violi (Casey) are the only two Liberals to achieve a primary vote swing of +4%

The Liberal Party suffered a crushing defeat at the Federal Election held earlier this month, and the recriminations continue under new leader Sussan Ley – the Liberal Party’s first female leader.

However, there were some bright spots for the party with 20 Liberal/LNP candidates achieving a positive primary vote swing led by Liberal candidate for Melbourne, Steph Hunt, who achieved a primary vote swing of +4.6% from 2022, and Liberal MP from Casey (Victoria), Aaron Violi, with a primary vote swing of +4.4%.

Other notable performances included Simmone Cottom with a primary vote swing of +3.9% in the Victorian seat of Hawke, Benson Saulo with a swing of +3.5% in the inner Melbourne seat of Macnamara, Tim Beddoe with a swing of +3.3% in the western Melbourne seat of Maribyrnong and re-elected Liberal MP Tim Wilson reclaiming his seat on Melbourne’s bayside with a primary vote swing of +3.1%.

Of the 20 Liberal/LNP candidates to achieve a positive primary vote swing in their electorate, three-quarters (15) were in Victoria, three were in New South Wales and two were in Queensland.

Top 20 Liberal candidates in 2025 Federal Election lifting the primary vote in their electorates

*Sources: AEC 2022 Federal Election Divisional results: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionalResults-27966.htm.

AEC 2025 Federal Election Divisional results (@ 5pm, May 26, 2025). https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionalResults-31496.htm

Steph Hunt’s outperformance in Melbourne led to the defeat of Greens Leader Adam Bandt

The most consequential result from the 20 Liberal/LNP candidates achieving primary vote swings this election was by Steph Hunt in the seat of Melbourne.

Not only did Hunt achieve the largest primary vote swing of +4.6% in her electorate of Melbourne, but the size of this swing led directly to the ousting of Greens Party Leader Adam Bandt from Parliament. This was an extraordinary result considering the Liberal Party suffered a primary vote swing of -3.2% at the election – Hunt’s primary vote result in Melbourne outperformed the broader Liberal Party nationally by +7.8%.

Bandt lost the seat by a margin of 3% on two-party preferred terms to new Labor MP Sarah Witty.

At the 2022 Federal Election Liberal preferences in the seat of Melbourne flowed 70% to Labor and 30% to the Greens – if that flow is repeated at this election (the results have yet to be released) the increase in Hunt’s primary vote of 4.6% would flow 3.2% to Witty (ALP) and 1.4% to Bandt (Greens) – enough to lead to the defeat of Bandt on the back of Hunt’s increased primary vote.

Four National/CLP candidates achieve primary vote swings in 2025 Federal Election

In addition to the 20 Liberal/LNP candidates to achieve primary vote swings this election there were four Nationals/CLP candidates that also achieved primary vote swings as part of the Coalition – including three women: Lisa Bayliss of the CLP with a primary vote swing of +11%, Kimberley Hone in the seat of Richmond (NSW) with a primary vote swing of +1.2% and Anne Webster in the seat of Mallee (Victoria) with a primary vote swing of +0.6%.

Top 4 National/CLP candidates in 2025 Federal Election lifting the primary vote in their electorates

*Sources: AEC 2022 Federal Election Divisional results: https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionalResults-27966.htm.

AEC 2025 Federal Election Divisional results (@ 5pm, May 26, 2025). https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionalResults-31496.htm

It should be noted that vote counting continues in many of these electorates which are yet to be formally declared by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). In addition, the redistribution of electorates in several States, including Victoria (which resulted in the abolition of the seat of Higgins) and New South Wales (which resulted in the abolition of the seat of North Sydney) means direct comparisons between electorates from the last election to this one are impacted by the changes in boundaries of many electorates.

In Victoria, the electorate of Higgins was abolished with parts of the former Labor-held electorate being taken over by five neighbouring electorates: Melbourne, Macnamara, Chisholm, Hotham and Kooyong – all five of these electorates recorded a higher Liberal primary vote than at the 2022 Federal Election.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

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