ALP set to win Federal Election with a small majority – ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%
The ALP is on track to win the Federal Election with a slightly increased majority with support for the Government firm this week: ALP 53% (up 0.9% from the 2022 Federal Election) leads the L-NP Coalition on 47% (down 0.9%) on a two-party preferred basis, the final Roy Morgan survey for this year’s Federal Election finds.
This result is in line with the Roy Morgan survey released earlier this week showing the ALP holding the same two-party preferred lead.
Primary support for Coalition was unchanged at 34.5% compared to a week ago although ALP support weakened, down 1% to 33%.
Support for the Greens was up 0.5% to 13.5% while support for One Nation was down 1% to 6.5%. This is not a ‘direct transfer’ of voting intention but rather indicates movement between the two major parties and the two key minor parties – ‘left’ (Greens), ‘right’ (One Nation).
Importantly, a further 12.5% of electors are opting to support other minor parties and independents, up 1.5% on a week ago. Within that bloc of support the largest support is for so-called ‘Teal Independents’ (3%) and Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ (2%). These results take into account that minor parties and independents are not running in every seat.
So, a record high total of 32.5% of electors plan to vote for a non-major party. This means preference flows could still change the outcome.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says:
“The final Roy Morgan Poll for the Federal Election shows the ALP on track to retain Government – and grow its narrow majority in the House of Representatives: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% – an increase of 0.9% points for the ALP in two-party preferred terms since the 2022 Federal Election.
“However, the number of undecided voters – 5% of the electorate – indicates a large number of people who are not satisfied with either the incumbent Albanese Government or the Liberal-National Opposition. When it comes down to finally making a decision at the ballot box, this cohort (of around 1 million people), is more likely to vote against the incumbent and preference the Opposition.
“This was the case with the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum when over 90% of those who said they were ‘Undecided’ on the question in the months leading up ended up voting ‘No’. This is why the final result was 60% against and only 40% for ‘The Voice’.”
The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,368 Australian electors from April 28 – May 2, 2025. Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) can’t say who they would vote for. When comparing different polls, it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.
When preferences from this week’s Roy Morgan survey are allocated based on how Australians voted at the 2022 Federal Election the two-party preferred result produced is more in favour of the ALP on 54% (unchanged from a week ago) leading the L-NP Coalition on 46% (unchanged).
Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.
For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.
For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
