ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 5.3 points to 92.9 in May, giving up the lift seen in April
ANZ NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence: I’m blue
Key points
- ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 5.3 points to 92.9 in May, giving up the lift seen in April.
- The proportion of households thinking it’s a 'good time to buy' a major household item (the best retail indicator) lifted 1 point, but at -10 it’s still weak.
- Inflation expectations eased 0.1pts to 4.6%. That’s a lot higher than a couple of months ago, with the jump possibly caused by global tariff talk.
Turning to the detail:
- The future conditions index made up of forward-looking questions fell 8 points to 96.9. The current conditions index fell 1 point to 87.1.
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 3 points to a net rating of -16% with 40% of New Zealanders (up 1% point) saying they are 'worse off' financially than a year ago compared to fewer than a quarter, 24% (down 2% points) who say they are 'better off' financially.
- However, a positive net 12% of New Zealanders expect to be better off this time next year, but down a large 11 points from a month ago with 37% (down 7% points) saying they expect to be 'better off' financially this time next year compared to only 25% (up 3% points) that expect to be 'worse off' financially.
- A net 10% of New Zealanders think it’s a 'bad time to buy' a major household item, an improvement of 1 point from a month ago but still weak with 43% (down 1% point) saying it's a 'bad time to buy' major household items compared to 34% (up 1% point) who say it's a 'good time to buy' major household items.
- Net perceptions regarding the economic outlook over the next 12 months fell 4 points to -20%. The 5-year-ahead measure fell from 9% to -1%, the biggest fall across all the questions.
- House price inflation expectations rose by 0.2% points from 3.4% to 3.6% year-over-year, led by Auckland (+4.1%).
- Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations eased by 0.1% points from 4.7% to 4.6%, holding onto most of last month’s jump. That seems likely to be related to global tariff noise, though household inflation expectations can also be sensitive to food prices, with the food price index up 3.7% year-over-year in May.
- For charts see page 4 of the linked PDF.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 5 points in May, with all component questions falling except for whether people think it’s a good time to buy a major household item. While that did lift 1 point, figure 2 shows that it’s still a long way from suggesting happy days for the retail sector.
Check out the latest data of ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence here: ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
