Roy Morgan Research
May 13, 2024

ALP maintains election winning lead over Coalition for a fourth straight week before Federal Budget is delivered: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9527
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The Albanese Labor Government has retained the lead for the fourth week in a row with support on 52% (unchanged) ahead of the Coalition on 48% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis before Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers this week’s pre-election Federal Budget.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be re-elected with a slim majority as they have now, the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

Although the overall two-party preferred result was unchanged, primary support for the ALP increased 2% to 32% this week but is still well behind the Coalition, unchanged on 37%.

Looking at the minor parties, support for the Greens increased 0.5% to 13.5% and support for One Nation was down 0.5% to 5.5%. Support for Independents was down 1% to 7.5% and support for Other Parties was down 1% to 4.5%.

The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,654 Australian electors from May 6-12, 2024. When comparing different polls it is always important to make sure to take note of the dates when the polls are conducted to undertake a proper comparison between two polls.

Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

For detailed analysis such as by States, capital cities/country areas, age, gender, occupation and education contact Julian McCrann on (03) 9224 5365 or email julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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