March 02, 2020

In January ‘good time to buy’ hit a record high 68% in Indonesia

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8297
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In January 2020 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased by 2.3pts from December to 161.0. This is 4.8pts higher than a year ago (156.2 in January 2019) and a significant 23.1pts above the long-term average (2005-2020) of 137.9.

The increase in Consumer Confidence was driven by a record high 68% of Indonesians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items and a record low of only 30% saying it is a ‘bad time to buy’.

Analysing the improvement in Consumer Confidence year on year by age shows increases among all age groups, but the largest improvement is for Indonesians aged 50+, where it is up by 15.6pts. Even so, the most confident age group is once again Indonesians aged 25-34, with Consumer Confidence of 164.3 (up 5.1pts on a year ago), ahead of those aged 14-24 on 162.4 (up 5.5pts).

Women had the edge in January, with Consumer Confidence of 161.3 compared to men on 160.7, although men have closed the gap over the last year with a bigger increase since January 2019 than women.

“Indonesian Consumer Confidence increased by 2.3pts to 161.0 in January on a month by month basis as the key indicator for retailers, ‘now is a good time to buy’, hit a record high 68%, up 2% points on a month ago and up 7% points compared to January 2019,”  said Ira Soekirman, Director of Roy Morgan Indonesia.

“The biggest move over the past year has been among older Indonesians, for whom Consumer Confidence is now at 157.5 and approaching the national average – up a stunning 15.6pts since January 2019. This remains lower than other age groups but even so it is the most confident this age group has been since October 2018.

“Clearly the big uncertainty that has grown in recent weeks is how coronavirus will impact on economies worldwide. Indonesia is yet to officially report any cases of the virus but the impact on Indonesia’s largest trading partners China and Japan, as well as the worldwide drop in tourism, are sure to provide a substantial challenge to the Indonesian economy’s high growth rate in the months ahead,”  said Ms. Soekirman.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Island & Region: January 2019 cf. January 2020

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Jan. 2019 (n=1,280) & Jan. 2020 (n=1,278).

Long-term Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence: 2010-2020

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ January 2020 (n=1,278).

January increase in confidence driven by increasing confidence now is a ‘good time to buy’

Analysis of the latest consumer confidence compared to a month ago shows the increase is driven by increasing confidence that now is a good time to buy major household items and also increasing confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy going forward.

In January a record high 68% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and a record low of only 30% (down 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

In addition a super majority of 91% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 9% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

Looking at the longer term, 94% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 6% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

Now 39% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago while only 7% (also down 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A decreasing majority of 67% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and an extremely low 2% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Comparing Indonesian Consumer Confidence with the longer-term, the current rating is a significant 21pts above the long-run average (2005-2020) of 137.9.

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,278 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in January throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia February 22/23, 2020 – 108.3) and New Zealand (February 2020 – 122.1); long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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