September 05, 2022

Maori party holds the balance of power in August as a potential National/Act NZ (46%) coalition is just ahead of Labour/Greens (44%)

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9064
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Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the Maori Party holds the balance of power in August for a second straight month with record high support of 5%, up 1% point from July.

The gap between the two sides of politics remains small with a potential National/Act NZ coalition unchanged on 46% just ahead of the governing Labour/Greens on 44%, down 0.5% points.

In August support for National was up 0.5% points to 35.5% while support for fellow right-leaning party Act NZ was dropped slightly by 0.5% points to 10.5%.

There was a slight increase in support for Labour, up 1% point to 35% to its highest level so far this year. However, support for the Greens dropped by 1.5% points to 9%, its lowest level of support so far this year as the party conducts another leadership election with the result due in mid-September.

In addition, a minority of 5% of electors (down 0.5% points) support minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 1.5%, The Opportunities Party down 1.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party was down 0.5% points to 0.5% in August.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 947 electors during August. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 6.5%, up 1.5% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 5pts to record low of 84.5 in August

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 5pts in August to 84.5. The indicator is now down a massive 30.5pts from a year ago in August 2021.

In August a record low of only 37.5% (down 3% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to a record high 53% (up 2% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 3.5pts to 85.4 and is now above the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 85.0 on August 22-28, 2022.

Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst older women aged 50+ at 50% compared to only 41.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 the lead is even larger with 49.5% supporting Labour/ Greens, and a gap of 16% points to National/Act NZ on only 33.5%.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, is attracting most of its support from women with 8% now supporting the party set to hold the balance of power including 12% of women aged 18-49 and 4% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with a majority of 55.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In August 52.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 40% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there was an even larger gap with 59% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 35.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

The Maori Party attracts the support of only 2% of men including 3.5% support from men aged 18-49, but less than 0.5% support from men aged 50+.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Almost one-in-five women aged 18-49 (19%) and one-in-ten men aged 18-49 (9.5%) support the Greens compared to only 3% of women aged 50+ and just 4% of men aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 35 38.5 30.5 47 31 30.5 31.5
Greens 9 11.5 19 3 6.5 9.5 4
Labour/ Greens 44 50 49.5 50 37.5 40 35.5
               
National 35.5 32.5 31 33.5 39 35 43.5
Act NZ 10.5 5 2.5 8 16.5 17.5 15.5
Maori Party 5 8 12 4 2 3.5 0
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party 51 45.5 45.5 45.5 57.5 56 59
 
Others 5 4.5 5 4.5 5 4 5.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 37.5 38 34 43 37 36.5 38
Wrong Direction 53 52.5 57.5 46 53.5 53.5 54
Government Confidence Rating 84.5 85.5 76.5 97 83.5 83 84
Can’t say 9.5 9.5 8.5 11 9.5 10 8
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for young women at only 76.5 in August

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped to a record low in August and the movement was driven by a big decline amongst younger women aged 18-49.

There is a large divergence in ratings between younger and older women in August. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 plunged by 12.5pts in August to only 76.5 – lower than any of the other demographic groups covered. In contrast, the Government Confidence Rating for older women aged 50+ increased, up 3pts to 97 – just below the neutral level of 100.

There is little difference for men of different ages with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 84 (down 1pt) and slightly higher for men aged 50+ at 85 (down 1pt).

Among women overall now 52.5% (up 4.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 38% (down 4% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 85.5 (down 8.5pts).

Once again, a clear majority of men, 53.5% (down 1% point) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while under two-fifths of men, 37% (down 2% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 83.5 (down 1pts).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the Maori Party is in the ‘box seat’ when it comes to who will form the next NZ Government as neither a potential National/Act NZ coalition or the current Labour/Greens coalition are set to win a majority of seats at next year’s election:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a narrow lead for a potential National/Act NZ coalition 46% (unchanged since July) over the governing Labour/Greens government 44% (down 0.5% points) – but neither side is close to winning a majority of seats.

“If these results were repeated at next year’s New Zealand Election the right-leaning National/ Act NZ would win 58 seats in Parliament while Labour/Greens would win 56 seats – both well short of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority.

“This puts the Maori Party in the ‘box seat’ to determine who will form Government next year. Support for the party hit a record high of 5% in August, up 1% point since July, and if that level of support persists the Maori Party would win six seats at the election. Support for the Maori Party is strongest amongst young women with 12% of women aged 18-49 supporting the party.

“While the Maori Party are soaring in support the Greens are drifting and their support has dropped to only 9%, down 1.5% points on a month ago and the lowest level of support all year. The Greens are engaged in a leadership election at the moment after co-leader James Shaw failed to secure the support of enough party delegates at the party’s Annual General Meeting.

“Although Shaw is the only candidate for the position the fact the current party co-leader was not able to secure enough support to continue in the role without the mandatory leadership spill and election proves the party is not as united as it would like heading towards the election.

“There is one year to go until New Zealanders are likely to head to the polls again and decide whether to award current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour Party a third term.

“Since 1975 New Zealand has had six different Government and on only one occasion, the Labour Government of David Lange (1984-1990), did a New Zealand Government fail to win a third term. Former Prime Ministers John Key and Jim Bolger (National) and Helen Clark (Labour) all won three election victories in their time as leader since 1990.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

  Labour Party-led Government (Labour, Greens) Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87 34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

2021
January 2021 58.5 36
February 2021 58.5 37.5
March 2021 57.5 35
April 2021 55 41
May 2021 56 39
June 2021 51 43.5
July 2021 49.5 44.5
August 2021 51.5 40.5
September 2021 55 41
October 2021 50 44
November 2021 46.5 47
December 2021 44 51
2022
January 2022 43.5 51
February 2022 43 51.5
March 2022 42.5 49
April 2022 44 49
May 2022 43 51
June 2022 43.5 50
July 2022 44.5 50
August 2022 44 51

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%). 

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

PARTY VOTE ELECTIONS

Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** TOP** NZ First Other
  % % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 13.35 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 4.26 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 10.38 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 n/a 5.72 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 n/a 4.07 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 n/a 6.59 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 n/a 8.66 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 2.44 7.20 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 1.51 2.60 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 1.5 2 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1 1.5 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2 2.5 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 0.5 1 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 2 1.5 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 3 2 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2 2.5 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 1 2.5 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 1.5 2.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 1 2 2
2022
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 1 2 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 1.5 4 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2 2.5 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 1 3 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 2 1.5 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 2.5 1.5 1.5
August 2022 35 9 35.5 10.5 5 1 1.5 2.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

SEAT COUNT ELECTIONS Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
% % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN SEAT PREDICTOR
2021
January 2021 60 15 32 11 2 0 0
February 2021 56 17 36 10 1 0 0
March 2021 59 16 30 14 1 0 0
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0
August 2022 44 12 45 13 6 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).


Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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