Roy Morgan Update April 14, 2026: Consumer Confidence, Federal Vote and Unemployment

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Federal Vote and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

And as predicted a week ago, the announcement of a ceasefire in the Middle East, albeit short-lived, has brought a degree of positive sentiment this week in several key indicators.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.2 points to 64.5 – a second straight weekly increase.

But still the fourth lowest reading for Consumer Confidence since the series began over 50 years ago.

Interestingly, for the first time since the war in the Middle East began, the Consumer Confidence among women – 65.2, is higher than men – 63.8.

In further good news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped for a second straight week, down 0.5% points to 6.7%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.7% in each of the next two years – the lowest reading on this indicator for a month – but still way above anyone’s comfort zone.

There was a slight recovery for Roy Morgan Government Confidence with 26% (up 3%) of electors believing the country is ‘going in the right direction’ But a majority 60.5% (down 1.5%) say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Overall, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up 4.5 points to just 65.5 – nearly 35 points below the neutral level of 100.

Now to the Roy Morgan Poll which shows ALP primary support 30% (down 0.5%), One Nation up 3% to 24.5% at the expense of the L-NP Coalition 22.5% (down 1.5%) - Liberals down 0.5% to 19.5% & Nationals down 1% to 3%, Greens up 0.5% to 12.5% and Independents/ Other Parties down 1.5% to 10.5%.

The Federal two-party preferred result is still -  ALP 56% ahead of the Coalition 44% based on how electors said they would vote – unchanged on a week ago.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a large majority according to interviewing conducted from April 6-12, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,512 electors.

Analysis of voting trends by gender shows a stark difference between the two genders with the ALP leading strongly amongst women on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 61% ( that’s up 3.5% points) cf. L-NP 39% (down 3.5% points).

This two-party preferred movement among women is driven by the changing primary votes and preference flows. with primary support for the ALP unchanged at 32.5%, but support for the Greens up 1.5% to 16.5%, the L-NP Coalition, down 3.5% to 21.5%, and support for One Nation up 2.5% to 19%.

However, amongst men, there has been a quite different result this week. On a two-party preferred basis both sides are level on 50%: ALP down 4% points to 50% cf. L-NP up 4% points to 50%.

Among men, primary support for the ALP is down 1% to 28%, while support for One Nation has increased 2.5% to 29.5% - and now the most popular party on primary vote. Support for the L-NP Coalition is up 0.5% to 23%, while support for Other Parties/ Independents is down 2% to 10.5%.

Now to Roy Morgan measures of employment and unemployment. So the war in Iran and consequent rise in petrol prices is already having an impact on people looking for work and people looking for more work.

‘Real Unemployment’ was essentially unchanged – down 0.1% to 10.5%. An estimated 1.69 million Australians were unemployed – looking for work, down 28,000 on a month ago – not due to more jobs being created – but because people stopped looking.

Overall employment fell 50,000 to under 14.5 million. (part time jobs decreased 120,000, full time jobs increased 70,000).

The Australian workforce contracted to 16,185,000 (down 78,000).

Under-employment – the number of people wanting to work more hours – was down significantly by 205,000 to an estimated 1.69 million.

This meant – workforce under-utilisation dropped 1.3% to 20.9%, – an estimated 3.38 million people.

However, the March estimates continue a long-run of high figures with over 3 million Australians now underutilised for a 16^th straight month stretching back to late 2024.

These numbers are important as the country tries to make the right economic and fiscal decisions to prevent rampant inflation or a recession in a complex global environment.

The inflation shock from the Middle East conflict is yet to fully impact the Australian economy.

As we saw in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the month of February (the same month the latest conflict began), that conflict led to inflation increasing rapidly throughout the rest of the year before peaking in December 2022 at 8.4%.

As well as high inflation we also saw 13 increases to interest rates in 2022 and 2023 to contain inflation – and there is a risk of a similar response this year.

These factors mean the Federal Budget – due to be delivered in about a month – must be careful to support the economy without increasing spending and stoking further inflation. There must be targeted measures to increase productivity in the economy that encourage businesses to invest and support growth.