Roy Morgan Update April 28, 2026: Federal Vote, Victorian State Voting and Consumer Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Victorian State Voting and Consumer Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

There was good news this week with some key indicators heading in the right direction.

Firstly, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5 points to 67.8 – the highest reading for Consumer Confidence in over a month as the ceasefire in the Middle East has continued.

The increase was driven by less concern about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year and next five years, although the indicator is still near record lows and the eighth lowest Consumer Confidence reading of all time.

There was further good news as worries about inflation eased. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped 0.5% to 6.6%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 6.6% in each of the next two years – the lowest figure since early March.

However, Roy Morgan Government Confidence slid this week. Now 25.5% (down 1%) of electors believe the country is ‘going in the right direction’, but a majority 60.5% (up 1%) say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Overall, Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 2 points to just 65 – 35 points below the neutral level of 100.

Now to the Roy Morgan Poll which shows the ALP maintaining their lead and Coalition and One Nation level on support.

ALP primary support 30%, L-NP Coalition 22.5% (Liberals on 19% and Nationals on 3.5%) and One Nation up 1% to 22.5%.

The Greens 14% and Independents/ Other Parties on 11%.

The Federal two-party preferred result tightened slightly this week with the ALP 54.5% (down 1%) ahead of the Coalition 45.5% based on how electors said they would vote.

This movement is not surprising as the preferences of One Nation voters tend to flow to the L-NP Coalition.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a large majority according to interviewing conducted from April 20-26, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,587 electors.

Turning to Victorian now, which faces a State Election later this year. On the eve of this week’s important Nepean by-election the Roy Morgan Poll surveyed Victorian electors and it shows a four way split in voting intention – “three parties and ‘others’”.

The governing ALP (25.5%) is now just ahead of One Nation (24.5%) and the L-NP Coalition (24%) with a further 26% supporting Other Parties and Independents – 13.5% support the Greens, 4% support Other Parties and 8.5% support Independents.

This survey was conducted from April 22-24, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 1,707 electors.

On a three-party preferred basis, the ALP scoops up the support of the Greens, other minor parties, and independents and has 44.5% support, well ahead of the Coalition on 28% and One Nation on 27.5% - almost tied.

Perhaps most importantly, on a two-party preferred basis the ALP has narrow leads over both the Coalition (51% cf. 49%) and One Nation (53.5% cf. 46.5%).

A look at the demographic results here is important. The ALP leads in Melbourne by a large margin and has a big lead amongst women and those aged under 50.

In contrast, both the Coalition and One Nation lead by a large margin in Country Victoria, and both lead amongst men.

The overall takeout of this poll is a confused picture. There will be different contests between the “ALP and One Nation”, “One Nation and the Liberals, and Nationals”, as well as the traditional “ALP and Liberal” contests in Melbourne – and these contests will play out on a seat-by-seat basis – as we saw in the recent South Australian election.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

There is a current example of this in the Eastern Victoria region which includes the electorate of Nepean (voting this week) – the two-party preferred result in Eastern Victoria between the Coalition (50.5%) and One Nation (49.5%) is close suggesting a long night of counting this Saturday.

On the question of who would make the ‘Better Premier’, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is preferred by a majority of 53% of Victorians compared to Jacinta Allan on 42%.

Wilson’s support is strongest amongst men, but she also leads amongst women, in Melbourne and Country Victoria, and all four age groups.

So, what’s worrying Victorians about the next State Government. Respondents were asked to air their concerns about a potential Coalition Government led by Jess Wilson or a re-elected ALP Government led by Jacinta Allan.

The key themes to emerge in relation to a potential Coalition Government are a lack of clarity and vision for Victoria from the Coalition (mentioned by 45% of respondents), the inexperience of Liberal Leader Jess Wilson and her front-bench team (35%), the internal division and instability on display in recent weeks (30%), the fear a Coalition Government will cut services and pursue an unashamedly “pro-business” agenda (30%), and concerns about the Coalition’s social policies (30%).

The key themes about a re-elected ALP State Government led by Jacinta Allan are concerns about State debt, the budget & financial mismanagement (mentioned by a majority of 65% of respondents), corruption, integrity and transparency (55%), crime, law & order (40%), leadership quality and competence (35%), and cost of living, economic pressures and taxation (30%).

As predicted when interest rates increased, the latest Roy Morgan estimates of mortgage stress show an increase of 1.9% in March, so 26.8% of Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ – an estimated 1.45 million Australians – 130,000 more than February.

The increase follows the Reserve Bank’s decision to increase interest rates in both February and March, so the March increase has not fully played out yet in these figures.

The Reserve Bank meets again next week and if they decide to increase rates next week in May, and again in June, by 0.25% in each month – mortgage stress is set to rise to 30.9% of mortgage holders – an estimated 1.67 million Australians – up 219,000 from now.