Roy Morgan Update April 8, 2026: Fuel Crisis, Federal Vote and Consumer Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Fuel Crisis, Federal Vote and Consumer Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

And the Easter holiday week has brought some respite from two weeks of record lows, and record highs, for ANZ-Roy Morgan’s key indicators.

There is also widespread approval for the Albanese Government’s decision to cut the fuel excise early last week – 83% of Australians approve of the temporary cut to the fuel excise on petrol and diesel – for the next three months – only 17% disapprove according to the special Roy Morgan SMS Poll.

Approval is high across all parties with 86% of ALP voters, 83% of L-NP voters, 77% of Greens voters, and 71% of One Nation voters giving their approval.

This Roy Morgan research shows 37% of Australians are aware of fuel shortages in their area as of last week.

People in New South Wales – are most likely to be aware of fuel shortages in their area– 46%.

People in Country Areas are more likely to be aware of fuel shortages in their area (42%) than people in Capital Cities (35%).

Almost 1-in-4 Australians (24%) say fuel shortages or rising fuel prices have affected their ability to carry out essential activities –like work, attending appointments etc 76% say they have not been affected.

When asked about changing behaviour

48% of Australians have reduced their driving;

20% have changed travel plans;

19% have decreased spending in other areas;

11% have purchased less fuel than usual;

9% have filled up more fuel than needed (9%) to deal with potential shortages and a rising price.

Around a third of Australians (34%) say they have made no changes to behaviour due to the fuel crisis.

And who do we blame? Most Australians say US President Donald Trump and US Leadership are most responsible for the fuel supply challenges. ( 38% each)

28% say the Australian Federal Government (both current and past) followed by the Middle East conflict itself (22%) and 20% say Oil & Fuel companies price gouging and taking advantage of the situation.

For further in-depth detail on what Australians are saying about the current fuel crisis head to the Roy Morgan website.

The Roy Morgan Poll Federal two-party preferred result shows the ALP 56% (down 0.5%) ahead of the Coalition 44% based on how electors said they would vote.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a large majority according to interviewing conducted from March 30 – April 5, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,411 electors.

And Roy Morgan Government Confidence trended lower last week. Now 62% (up 2.5%) of electors say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 23% (down 1.5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 4 points to just 61 – nearly 40 points below the neutral level of 100.

Analysis of voting trends by age shows stark differences in where people are putting their support based on their age.

For people aged 18-34, the ALP is favoured massively – by 69% to 31% over the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis.

This drops significantly for people aged 35-49 with the ALP ahead 60.5% to 39.5%.

While for people aged 50-64, the ALP has a narrow lead – 52.5% to 47.5%.

AND, for people aged 65+ the Coalition leads 57.5% to 42.5%.

PRIMARY voting intention by age reveals something even more remarkable. I will get to that in a minute.

First, Overall, the ALP PRIMARY vote was 30.5%, (up 0.5%) to L-NP Coalition 24% (up 1.5% ) - Liberals up 0.5% to 20% & Nationals up 1% to 4%, One Nation was down 2% to 21.5%, Greens down 1.5% to 12% and Independents/ Other Parties up 1.5% to 12%.

For people aged 18-34, Greens (27%) have the most support, just ahead of the ALP (26.5%).

For people aged 35-49, ALP (37.5%) has the most support, well ahead of One Nation (20%).

For people aged 50-64 One Nation (30.5%) and the ALP (31%) are almost equal in support.

While for people aged 65+  the L-NP Coalition (36.5%) has most support and the ALP a distant second  (27.5%).

And now to Consumer Confidence.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5 points to 62.3 – the first increase since the Middle East War started in late February.

However, despite the rise, this is the second lowest reading for Consumer Confidence since the series began over 50 years ago.

 ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped only slightly by 0.1% points to 7.2% – down from last week’s record high.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 7.2% in each of the next two years – still the second highest reading for this measure ever recorded.

And finally today, to Business Confidence.

This may just be the most important indicator of all. Perhaps surprisingly to some, Business Confidence stabilised in March, after dramatic falls in January and February. March Business Confidence was up 2.1 points to 90.7.

Driving the small increase –was a slight increase to confidence about the Australian economy’s performance over the next year and next five years.

Some more positive sentiment from the business community despite the Middle Eastern conflict – and back-to-back interest rate increases in February and March – is welcome, although the index remains fragile at a low level almost 10 points below the neutral level of 100.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,000 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.