Roy Morgan Update August 11, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Unemployment

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

One Nation primary support is up 2% to 26%, ahead of ALP down 2% to 25.5%, L-NP Coalition, down 1.5% to 22% - Liberals 18.5% (down 1.5%) and Nationals 3.5% (unchanged), Greens, up 0.5% to 15.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 1% to 11% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 3-9, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,647 electors.

Support for One Nation (26%) is at its highest level for a month and ahead of the ALP for the first time since early July.

Despite One Nation leading on primary vote, if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a narrow majority (53:47) against either One Nation or the Coalition.

These results show that although the primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition – at a total of 48% this week – is far ahead of the ALP, if the two parties don’t combine on a strong preference deal – their preferences will leak back to Labor, and there is no guarantee their high level of support will lead to an election victory – either at the next Federal Election, or indeed at this year’s Victorian Election.

Currently, One Nation preferences flow 87%, to the L-NP and around 75% of L-NP preferences flow to One Nation.

In contrast, Greens preferences flow reliably to the ALP at over 90%.

An increasing majority of Australians, 61.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 2%). Only 24% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (down 3%).

This view is shared by both genders with 62% of men and 60% of women saying Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by voting intention shows large differences between supporters of different parties.

95% of One Nation voters say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ as do 78% of Coalition voters, and 60% of minor party voters. This compares to 51% of Greens voters and 44% of Independent voters.

In contrast, among ALP supporters a majority of 51% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ and only 27% say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged before today’s Reserve Bank meeting.

The Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% – as was widely expected.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was at 75, up 0.3 points.

There was concerning news on the inflation front this week. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.2% to 5.7%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.7% in each of the next two years.

This is the fourth time in the last five weeks Inflation Expectations have increased.

Putting upward pressure on Inflation Expectations is the rising price of petrol.

The fuel excise cut has ended progressively over the last month and this week average petrol prices jumped over 10 cents to above $2 a litre for the first time since April.

Petrol prices have now increased by over 46 cents per litre since late June – up almost 30%.

Now to Roy Morgan measures of accurate employment and unemployment – there was mixed news in July with ‘Real Unemployment’ virtually unchanged at 11.6%, 1.83 million, 27,000 fewer Australians looking for work than a month ago.

Of concern for the Federal Government, there was a contraction in employment in July – down 48,000 to 13,980,000 due to a fall in part-time employment.

The combined impact of the falls in employment and unemployment meant the overall workforce contracted 75,000 to just over 15.8 million.

Workforce under-utilisation was at 20.4% (down 0.7% from a month ago), – an estimated 3.23 million people – clearly an indicator of a weak economy struggling to generate new jobs.

Turning to Victoria now and following a big few weeks in Victorian politics with new Premier Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan, and One Nation Victoria announcing their Victorian Leader – Warren Pickering.

The primary votes of the ALP and L-NP Coalition are even on 26%, just ahead of One Nation (23.5%), and a further 24.5% support Other Parties and Independents – 12.5% support the Greens, 4% support Other Parties and 8% support Independents.

On a two-party preferred basis the Coalition now has a narrow lead over the ALP (51% cf. 49%) – its first lead since Jess Wilson became the new Opposition Leader late last year.

The Coalition leads One Nation comfortably (63.5% cf. 36.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The closeness of the primary vote results shows the second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

They also show that although the combined Coalition and One Nation support is now 49.5% - if there is no deal between the parties the ALP Government under new Premier Ben Carroll still has a chance of holding on to power.

This is illustrated by the question of who would make the ‘Better Premier’. In a three-way contest, Premier Ben Carroll (46.5%) is preferred to Jess Wilson (35.5%) and Warren Pickering (16%) –supporters on the right are split between Wilson and Pickering.

And just today, new Premier Ben Carroll has delayed legislation on the right to work from home until after the election – turning the issue into an election issue the ALP will campaign on.

This survey was conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.

Importantly, Roy Morgan asked Victorian electors about the concerns they have about any new Government elected in November – whether an ALP Government led by Ben Carroll, a Coalition Government led by Jess Wilson, or a One Nation Government led by Warren Pickering.

This rich quantified qualitative research provides a window into Victorian concerns about the fate of Victoria.

Key concerns about an ALP Government are ‘Corruption and Integrity Failures’, ‘Financial Mismanagement & State Debt’, ‘Continuation of Andrews/Allen era problems’, ‘Union Influence & Factional Control’, and ‘Crime, Law & Order’.

When it comes to a Coalition Government, Victorians are concerned about ‘Cuts to Public Services & Austerity’, ‘Internal Infighting, Instability & Lack of Cohesion’, ‘Lack of Policies/ No Clear Plan’, ‘Inexperience of Jess Wilson & Team’, and ‘Right-Wing Shift/One Nation Influence’.

The top concerns Victorians report about a One Nation Government are ‘Racism, Xenophobia & Discrimination’, ‘Lack of Policies/ No Governing Capability’, ‘Conspiracy Theories & Extremism’, ‘Inexperience of Leader & Candidates’, and ‘Division, Hate & Social Cohesion Breakdown’.