Roy Morgan Update August 18, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Victorian State Voting

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Victorian State Voting Intention.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

ALP primary support is up 3% to 28.5%, ahead of One Nation 25% (down 1%), L-NP Coalition, at 23.5% (up 1.5%) - Liberals 21% (up 2.5%) and Nationals 2.5% (down 1%), Greens, down 3% to 12.5%, and Independents/ Other Parties down 0.5% to 10.5% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 10-16, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,576 electors.

Support for the Greens fell significantly in Victoria, and South Australia, and especially in the cities of Melbourne, Brisbane, and Adelaide – with support down by at least 4% points.

The fall in support came as controversial Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi urged students to skip school last week to protest against One Nation and its national leader Pauline Hanson.

The Greens loss appears to have translated into a win for the ALP (up 3% to 28.5%) – the highest primary support for the ALP since the Federal Budget.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation (53-47) or the L-NP Coalition (52-48).

A clear majority of Australians, 60.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 1%). Only 26% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (up 2%).

This view is shared by both genders with 62.5% of men and 58% of women saying Australia is ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by voting intention shows large differences between supporters of different parties.

91% of One Nation voters say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ as do 77% of Coalition voters, 68% of minor party voters, and 58% of Independent voters.

This compares to 47% of Greens voters and only 25% of ALP voters. Among ALP supporters a rising majority of 56% (up 5%) say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

There was good news for Consumer Confidence rising to its highest mark since early March. This week ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 1.5 points to 76.5.

Driving the increase was more confidence about personal finances after the Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged.

There has been a clear divergence in recent weeks between confidence of Renters, Home Owners and those with a mortgage.

For those facing the most challenges: High interest rates and mortgage repayments on homes that are, or may, be losing value – People With A Mortgage –Consumer Confidence has averaged only 68.2 since the start of July.

This compares to an average of 75.6 for Home Owners, facing downward pressure on the value of their home, and 81.5 for Renters –which is actually higher than in February before the Iran War.

Since the start of July Consumer Confidence for Renters has been highest of the three groups for seven straight weeks.

A key factor putting upward pressure on Inflation and Inflation Expectations is the rising price of petrol which has now been above $2 per litre for the last two weeks and is up over 40 cents per litre since late June.

The renewed spike in petrol prices is flowing through to Inflation Expectations. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.1% to 5.8%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.8% in each of the next two years. This is the fifth time in the last six weeks Inflation Expectations have increased.

Turning to Victoria now and analysis of the special Roy Morgan Victorian SMS Poll in early August by region shows the L-NP Coalition and One Nation are on track to win a majority of seats in Victoria’s Upper House at this year’s State Election.

The L-NP Coalition are set to win at least 11 seats and One Nation at least 10 seats – at least 21 seats in the 40-seat chamber.

Since the new Upper House regional voting system was introduced in 2006 the L-NP Coalition has only managed to win a majority once – in 2010.

The ALP is on track to win at least 9 seats, the Greens at least 2 seats, Other Parties 1 seat, while a further 7 seats are still up for grabs with preference deals key to deciding who will win them.

The results in the lower house remain highly uncertain and dependent on preference deals between the major parties, but the latest Morgan Poll showed the Coalition holding a narrow edge over the ALP – leading 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis.

And now to fast-food. New Roy Morgan research shows 19.2 million Australians aged 14+ (82.5%) ate take away food in an average six months from fast food outlets.

Old favourite McDonald’s is again the leading restaurant with over 11.3 million customers eating take away food from the restaurant – and many of these customers doing so multiple times, ahead of KFC (10.3 million), Hungary Jack’s (6.3 million), and Domino’s Pizza (5.2 million).

There are another 10 fast-food restaurants who have at least 1 million customers in an average six months.

And finally today to a Roy Morgan forecast for Retail Sales.

Although the retail industry faces significant challenges with cost-of-living concerns, rising interest rates and high inflation, the industry is approaching a significant milestone this August with monthly Retail Sales set to tick over $40 Billion for the first time, an increase of 6% on a year ago.

Driving the increase is high growth in Household Goods, up 8.8% from a year ago to almost $6.7 Billion in monthly sales, and strong growth in Hospitality, up 6.2% to over $5.9 Billion.

By State, fastest growth is in Western Australia, up 7.2% to $4.8 Billion, South Australia, up 6.4% to $2.6 Billion, and New South Wales, up 6.1% to over $12 Billion for the month of August.