Roy Morgan Update August 4, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Business Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

Business Confidence for July hit the lowest level ever recorded; and extreme mortgage stress increased.

Consumer Confidence and Australian Inflation Expectations both moved in the right direction and although an increased majority of Australians believe the country is going in the wrong direction, if an election were held now the ALP would win a majority.

ALP primary support is unchanged at 27.5%, One Nation down 1.5% to 24%, just ahead of the L-NP Coalition, up 1.5% to 23.5% - Liberals 20% (up 1.5%) and Nationals 3.5% (unchanged), Greens up 1% to 15%, and Independents/Other Parties down 1% to 10% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from July 27 – August 2, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,531 electors.

Support for One Nation (24%) and the L-NP Coalition (23.5%) is almost even this week, and the increase for the Coalition means the party has recorded its highest level of support since the Federal Budget delivered almost three months ago in mid-May.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the Coalition.

If the contest were between ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis ALP is ahead – 52% (down 2%) to 48% (up 2%), based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences.

Against One Nation, the Roy Morgan two-party preferred estimate is 54% (up 0.5%) to 46% (down 0.5%) in favour of the ALP.

Government Confidence declined this week and is well below the neutral level of 100.

A large majority of Australians, 59.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (up 1.5%). And 27% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (unchanged).

This results in Roy Morgan Government Confidence down 1.5 points to 67.5, well into negative territory.

However, Consumer confidence improved, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 3.5 points to 74.7.

All five indices improved this week with the largest increases being for personal finances over the next year and current buying conditions.

There was also good news on the inflation front. ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped 0.4% to 5.5%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.5% in each of the next two years.

The lower Inflation Expectations came as official ABS Inflation estimates for June showed CPI dropping for a third straight month since peaking in March.

The lower Inflation and Inflation Expectations take pressure of the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates again next week – good news for Australians with a mortgage…

Roy Morgan’s Single Source research reveals extreme mortgage stress increased nationally in the first six months of this year.

The share of owner-occupier mortgage holders ‘Extremely at Risk’ of mortgage stress rose in the six months to June 2026 compared to the previous six months and is now higher than June 2024 – just before the Stage 3 tax cuts kicked in.

An estimated 1.06 million mortgage holders (19.8%) were ‘Extremely at Risk’ of mortgage stress in June 2026, up from 16.7% in December 2025, and higher than in June 2024 (19.3%).

A key cohort driving high levels of extreme mortgage stress are lower income earners with household incomes of less than $100,000, and people in the lower socio-economic quintiles.

Mortgage holders with annual household incomes of less than $100,000 are far more likely to be ‘Extremely at Risk’ of mortgage stress than those on higher incomes.

In June 2026, almost half of all mortgage holders with household incomes below $100,000 were in extreme mortgage stress (48.7%). This compares to only 11.3% of mortgage holders with household incomes of over $100,000.

Mortgage holders on lower incomes have experienced consistent increases in mortgage stress since June 2024. By contrast, among households with incomes over $100,000, mortgage stress declined significantly between June 2024 and December 2025, before rising again this year as interest rates increased.

For further information head over to the Roy Morgan website.

Now to business.

For the month of July Australian Business Confidence hit a new record low of 76, well below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence has averaged only 76.5 over the last four months.

Driving Business Confidence lower were fewer businesses saying now is a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business, and fewer businesses saying they are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

During the three months to July, Education & Training with a Business Confidence of 100.1 – was the only Industry in positive territory, and only by the slightest margin.

All other industries had Business Confidence in negative territory below 100. The lowest Business Confidence was for Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services on 68.2 and Accommodation & Food Services on just 65.3.

Finally, the political situation in New Zealand where there’s an election in a few months.

Support for the National-led Government is 49% well ahead of the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition on 41%, and a further 10% supporting a party outside Parliament.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is made up of National on 32% (up 1%), NZ First on 8.5% (down 2%) and ACT on 8.5% (down 1%).

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition includes Labour on 25.5%, Greens on 13.5% and the Maori Party on 2%, all virtually unchanged on a month ago.

Importantly, the Opportunity Party, currently not in Parliament has increased its support to 8% - a record high for the party.

The survey results for July if played out at the election would likely see the National-led Government winning 59 seats, Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition winning 51 seats -with both falling short of a majority of seats.

The Opportunity Party would likely win 10 seats and hold the ‘Balance of Power’ in the New Zealand Parliament.