Roy Morgan Update December 17, 2025: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mining Industry

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mining Industry.

Welcome to the last Roy Morgan Weekly update for 2025.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted last week from December 8-14 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,574 electors shows support for the ALP was down 2.5% to 30.5% compared to the three weeks before.

Support for the ALP has dropped in the last week as the ‘expenses scandal’ dominated the media and led to rising pressure on several senior cabinet ministers.

The Coalition was at 27.5% (up 1.5%), One Nation were at a record high 17% (up 2%), the Greens were at 13% (down 0.5%), and Independents/ Other Parties were at 12% (down 0.5%)

The record high support for One Nation beats the previous record high of 14.5% set in June and July 1998.

On a two-party preferred basis support for the ALP last week was at 54.5% ahead of the Coalition on 45.5% - the closest result since the Federal Election in May 2025.

It's important to note, all interviewing for this Roy Morgan survey was conducted before the shocking terrorist attack on Bondi Beach early on Sunday evening.

For the full four weeks of December the ALP leads the Coalition in five States: New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia – however the LNP is now ahead in Queensland.

The ALP holds large leads in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, but there is little to split both major parties in Queensland and Western Australia.

Looking at the entire four weeks, the ALP has maintained a large lead amongst women at 58.5% ahead of the Coalition on 41.5%.

The gap is far closer amongst men – with the ALP on 52.5% only holding a narrow lead over the Coalition on 47.5%.

Analysis by Age shows a clear split between those aged under 50 versus those aged over 50.

Under 50 – the ALP holds large two-party preferred leads amongst both 18-34 year olds and 35-49 year olds.

Over 50, the Coalition holds narrow leads for both 50-64 year olds and those aged 65+.

For the month of December, the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence shows 52% of Australians say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 33% that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

So, Government Confidence is only 81 in December.

And now to our weekly metrics – starting with Consumer Confidence – and the decline in confidence has continued for a second straight week after the Black Friday sales.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is down 2 points to 81.5.

When the Reserve Bank cut interest rates four months ago in August 2025 – Consumer Confidence jumped above 90 for the first time in years. However, since then, Consumer Confidence is down nearly 10 points.

There was a decline in buying sentiment for a second straight week following the Black Friday sales, however, the indicator really dragging down confidence is our pessimistic views on the Australian economy over the next five years.

Now only 9% of Australians say they expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years while over three times as many – 29% - say they expect ‘bad times’.

This is a net rating of -20% on this indicator – the lowest rating for nearly 35 years since January 1991, and a record low for the weekly index.

This indicator is 36 points lower than the high of +16% in January 2021 – during the middle of the pandemic.

Interestingly, this indicator reached a record high of +45% in August 2009 – during the Global Financial Crisis.

And now a look at how confidence diverges in Australia’s major Capital Cities.

Perth is Australia’s most confident major city, the monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence measure shows Perth – at 89.5 ahead of Sydney on 87.5 and Melbourne on 84.7.

The city with the least confidence might come as a surprise to some but it is Brisbane on only 82.8.

A deeper analysis of Business Confidence focusing on the Mining Industry shows a strong recovery in confidence in the second half of 2025 after plunging earlier in the year.

The movements match up with broader policy discussions – especially from the Trump Administration which threatened tariffs on many exporters early in 2025, before stepping back from the larger threats, and then talked up more mining deals – and especially for Critical Minerals and Rare Earths from mid-2025 and onwards.

Australia has one of the largest untapped deposits of critical minerals and rare earths in the world and as these discussions ramped up and led to a deal signed in October – Mining Confidence soared – from 95.0 in the six months to July 2025 to 118.2 in the 6 months to November 2025 – an increase of 23.2pts.

Broader Business Confidence actually declined during this period.

Analysing the results more closely shows it is smaller Mining businesses with annual revenue below $5 million which have driven this increase – confidence for these businesses has increased by a massive 39.8 points since mid-year to 131.1 in the 6 months to November 2025.

And finally today – and this year – to some important news on Christmas – and Australian spending habits coming into the holiday season.

Roy Morgan, in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association, forecasts total Retail Spending of $72.4 Billion in the pre-Christmas period this year – effectively the 6 weeks running into Christmas, up 4% on a year ago.

68% of Australian adults – 15.9 million people – are buying Christmas gifts this year and spending a total of $12 Billion on these Gifts – up $200 million on a year ago.

This includes average spending of $757 each on Gifts, and 35-49 year olds are the biggest average spenders – set to spend $853 each on Christmas Gifts.