Roy Morgan Update December 9, 2025: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and Unemployment

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

And firstly today to our weekly metrics – starting with Consumer Confidence. Roy Morgan, in association with the Australian Retailers Association, forecast a record spending of $6.8 Billion over the Black Friday sales weekend.

And, as expected, following the big sales period, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has dropped – down 2 points to 83.5.

There was a decline in buying sentiment as well as a decrease in confidence about personal finances over the next year that drove the weekly fall – back to exactly where it was a month ago.

And for a second straight week Inflation expectations are at a two year high - the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations unchanged at 5.6% leading into today’s Reserve Bank decision.

So, Australians are now expecting annual inflation of 5.6% each year over the next two years.

The high official inflation readings are a clear indicator of the pressure being put on household budgets and explain why the Reserve Bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.6%.

Now to Roy Morgan measures of employment and unemployment – the measure that really matters – and the news is mixed in November.

‘Real Unemployment’ was virtually unchanged in November, at 10.2%, - so, an estimated 1.63 million Australians are unemployed – looking for work.

Looking directly at the employment figures, there was good news with employment up 119,000 to over 14.3 million.

The increase was driven by a jump in full-time employment, up 210,000 to over 9.2 million, but part-time employment was down 91,000 to around 5.1 million.

Overall these figures meant the workforce grew in November driven by the rising employment.

However, the news for under-employment was not good – the number of people wanting to work more hours increased for a second straight month – up by 63,000 to over 1.7 million.

Total unemployment and under-employment – what we might call workforce under-utilisation – increased 0.2% to 20.9% of the workforce in October – an estimated 3.34 million people.

Most concerningly, the estimates for November continue a long-run of high figures with over 3 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed – a 12^th straight month above this level.

Comparing November employment figures to a year ago shows the sluggishness in the Australian economy with employment down by 91,000. Full-time employment is down 64,000 and part-time employment is down 27,000.

In contrast, both unemployment and under-employment have increased markedly from a year ago. Unemployment is up 165,000 and under-employment is up 266,000 – an overall increase of 431,000.

Now to business.

Australia’s businesses are still more confident than consumers – but Business Confidence stalled in November, down 3 points to 98.7 – now below the neutral level of 100 after the Reserve Bank left interest rates on hold in both September and November.

The drivers of the drop related specifically to views on the Australian economy over the next 12 months and how businesses view their personal prospects heading into 2026 – both of these indicators declined in November.

This Roy Morgan Business Confidence series is based on interviews with 1,200 businesses each month to gauge their views on their company’s prospects as well as their assessment of the broader Australian economy.

Over the two months of October and November, the most confident industries were:

Mining which recorded a Business Confidence of 126.6, Financial & Insurance Services on 120.0, Manufacturing on 114.2, Public Administration & Safety on 113.3 and Professional, Scientific & Support Services on 111.8.

Confidence in the Mining Industry was significantly boosted in recent months when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a multi-billion-dollar deal with US President Donald Trump covering access to and development of Australia’s large resources of critical minerals and rare earths.

At the other end of the scale, we have Wholesale Trade on only 77.3 and Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on just 79.3 – both well below any other industries.

And finally today to some exciting news on Roy Morgan’s AI-powered advertising tool underpinned by Helix Personas – Roy Morgan’s WorkSpace Copy Engine.

Leading homebuilder Simonds Homes has significantly improved its digital marketing performance after piloting Roy Morgan’s Workspace Copy Engine.

The pilot, driven by its agency Sonar Group, delivered a 2.3x higher conversion rate on Google and a 40% reduction in cost per lead (CPL) across Google and Meta combined, compared to Simonds’ business-as-usual activity.

As digital advertising becomes more crowded and AI reshapes how brands reach customers, Simonds Homes set out to move beyond generic “home buyer” messaging and answer a fundamental growth question: Who are our best customers – and how can we find more people like them, earlier in their journey?

To learn more about how Roy Morgan Workspace Copy Engine can drive improved results for your business, head over to the Roy Morgan website.