Roy Morgan Update February 24, 2026: Federal Vote, Inflation Expectations and Australian Readership

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Inflation Expectations and Australian Readership.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

This week we have results from two important Roy Morgan State Polls in Victoria and New South Wales. Both States are holding elections in the next year – and in both States support for One Nation is surging.

But the latest Federal Voting Intention shows the L-NP fighting back.

The Roy Morgan Poll into Federal voting intention shows the ALP leading on 31%, the Liberal-National Coalition on 24% - up 0.5% from last week and up 4% since Angus Taylor became leader, One Nation on 20.5% (down 1%, and down 4.5% since Taylor became Coalition Leader).

Support for the Greens 12.5%, and Independents/Other Parties 12% according to interviewing conducted from February 16-22, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,649 electors.

The results signify a continuing – albeit slow so far – recovery following the Coalition leadership change to Angus Taylor.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is on 54.5% compared to the Coalition on 45.5%. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily returned to Government.

Despite positive economic indicators in the last week with ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increasing 3.1 points to 80.2, and ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropping 0.3% to 5.2%, social and cultural turmoil including the aftermath of the Bondi terrorist attack, protests against Israeli President Isaac Herzog, the rise of One Nation on the back of anti-immigration rhetoric, and anti-Islamic comments by One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson led a rising majority of 57.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians to say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ compared to only 29.5% (down 3.5%) that say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

However, Australians are concerned about the country. A majority of electors, 57.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 29.5% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at only 72 – nearly 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

The first Roy Morgan Poll of Victorian electors in the lead-up to this year’s Victorian State Election – set for November – shows a surging One Nation (26.5%), now ahead of both the ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote.

13.5% support the Greens and 13% support minor parties and independents.

Since the last Victorian Election support for One Nation has increased by over 26%, support for the ALP is down 11%, and support for the Coalition is down 13%.

This survey was conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.

There is a clear gender split with this support – 30.5% of men support One Nation compared to only 22% of women, whereas 28.5% of women support the ALP compared to only 23% of men.

That’s a difference of 14% points.

On a three-party preferred basis, the ALP scoops up the support of the Greens, other minor parties, and independents and has 44.5% support, well ahead of One Nation on 29.5%, and the Coalition on 26%.

Perhaps most importantly, on a two-party preferred basis the ALP has narrow leads over both the Coalition (52% cf. 48%) and One Nation (52.5% cf. 47.5%).

A look at the demographic results here is important. The ALP leads in Melbourne by a large margin, and has a big lead amongst women and those aged under 35.

In contrast, both the Coalition and One Nation lead by a large margin in Country Victoria, and both have comfortable leads amongst men.

On the question of who would make the ‘Better Premier’, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson is preferred by a majority of Victorians.

Wilson’s support is strongest amongst men, but she also leads in Melbourne and Country Victoria, and all four age groups.

Premier Jacinta Allan leads narrowly amongst women.

In terms of Job Approval – a majority of Victorian approve of the job Wilson is doing as Opposition Leader. Wilson has positive Job Approval from both men and women, all four age groups, and in both Melbourne and Country Victoria.

However, the picture is not good for Premier Allan, over two-thirds of Victorians disapprove of the job Allan is doing, and this includes large majorities of men and women, people of all age groups, and people in Melbourne and Country Victoria.

The overall takeout of this poll is a confused picture. If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.

There will be different contests between the ALP and One Nation, One Nation and the Liberals, and Nationals, as well as the traditional ALP and Liberal contests in Melbourne.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

The Roy Morgan Poll of New South Wales electors conducted from February 16-19, 2026, with a representative New South Wales-wide cross-section of 2,108 electors, shows a surging One Nation (30%), ahead of both the ALP (25%) and L-NP Coalition (19%) on primary vote – one year before the State Election.

12.5% support the Greens and 13.5% support minor parties and independents.

Since the last New South Wales Election support for One Nation has increased by over 28%, support for the ALP is down 12%, and support for the Coalition is down 16%.

In New South Wales, just like in Victoria, there is a clear gender split – 34% of men support One Nation compared to only 26.5% of women, whereas 27.5% of women support the ALP compared to only 22.5% of men – a difference of 13% points.

On a three-party preferred basis, the ALP gains the support of the Greens, other minor parties, and independents and has 44% support, well ahead of One Nation on 33.5%, and the Coalition on only 22.5%.

Most importantly, on a two-party preferred basis the ALP leads the Coalition (54% cf. 46%) and One Nation (52.5% cf. 47.5%) – although in New South Wales, One Nation performs better than the Coalition on two-party preferred.

The demographic results show a similar trend to Victoria. The ALP leads in Sydney by a large margin, and has a big lead amongst women and those aged under 35.

In contrast, the Coalition and One Nation lead in Country New South Wales, and amongst men.

On the question of who would make the ‘Better Premier’, Premier Chris Minns is preferred by a majority of people in New South Wales.

Minns’ has a large lead amongst both genders, across all four age groups, and in both Sydney and Country New South Wales.

Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane only holds a lead amongst Coalition supporters.

In terms of Job Approval – a majority of people in New South Wales approve of the job Minns is doing as Premier. Minns has positive Job Approval from both men and women, all four age groups, in both Sydney and Country New South Wales, and, unusually, from both ALP and Coalition supporters.

There is also support for Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane – who has a positive overall approval rating – although just below a majority.

Sloane has higher approval than disapproval from both men and women, in Sydney, from both ALP and Coalition supporters, and from people aged 35-49 and 65+.

The overall picture from this poll is similar to that for Victoria. If a New South Wales State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.

The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.

When Roy Morgan asked voters in New South Wales, and Victoria, about why they were voting for One Nation, people in Victoria mentioned the CFMEU ‘Big Build’ and extensive union corruption, and in New South Wales mentioned the Bondi terrorist attack and response, while there were consistent messages from both States about the level of immigration and Net Zero, and that One Nation ‘don’t change their values to get votes’, the issue of cost of living, Labor and Liberal being out of touch and not supporting the interest of the Australian people, the incompetence of the Government(s), the lack of leadership from both major parties, and the fact Pauline is a straight talker and says what she means, and means what she says.

And now to the key weekly indicators.

There was good news this week with ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 3.1 points to 80.2.

Driving this week’s increase was more confidence about the Australian economy over the next year (up a net 5% points) more confidence about the next five years (up a net 4% points).

In further good news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations dropped 0.3% to 5.2% this week.

This means Australians expect inflation of 5.2% in each of the next two years.

The latest Roy Morgan Australian Readership Report shows 63% of Australians (14.5 million Australians aged 14+) read magazines in print or online via the web or an app – the ‘cross-platform audience’.

And nearly three quarters of this total cross-platform audience, over 10.7 million people, read print magazines

Magazines with the largest cross-platform audience are Better Homes and Gardens and Woman’s Day – both reaching an audience of over 1.9 million, New Idea and The Australian Women’s Weekly – both reaching over 1.6 million, and Take 5 (Weekly), National Geographic, TV Week, and Take 5 Bumper Monthly – all with audiences of well over 1 million.

Just looking at the print magazines – several large categories are read by millions of Australians.

Over 6.2 million read Food & Entertainment Magazines in print.

Almost 4 million read Home & Garden Magazines and General Interest Magazines.

Well over 2.3 million read Mass Women’s Magazines.

And Business, Financial & Airline Magazines are read by over 1.2 million, as are Health & Family Magazines.