Roy Morgan Update February 3, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll reflects continuing upheaval among the opposition parties.

ALP primary support is unchanged at 30.5%, One Nation, up 2.5% to 25% ahead of the Liberals, down 2% to 18%, the Greens down 0.5% to 12.5%, and 14% supporting Independents and Other Parties including 2.5% supporting the Nationals.

The underlying factors are that Liberal supporters are continuing to move to One Nation, and the Liberal-National Coalition remains split.

However, talks between Liberal Leader Sussan Ley and Nationals Leader David Littleproud about re-uniting the Coalition remain ongoing. Ley has given the Nationals a deadline of rejoining by Sunday, or the split will be formalised in Shadow Cabinet.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP lead was little changed this week on 56% (down 0.5%) - maintaining a large lead over the Liberal-National Coalition on 44% - if the parties were to re-unite.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily returned to Government due to the upheaval amongst Opposition ranks.

A look at key demographics shows the ALP now leads the Liberals, and One Nation, on two-party preferred terms, and on primary vote, in all six States, amongst both women and men, and for all Australians aged under 65.

The majority of Australian electors, 56.5%, now say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 30% of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is virtually unchanged this week at 73.5 – up 0.5 points.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll was surveyed with a representative cross-section of 1,401 Australians from Monday January 26 to Sunday February 1.

During the full month of January, support for One Nation was highest in New South Wales at 26% and Queensland at 24%, clearly ahead of the Liberals in both of these key States.

New South Wales faces a key State Election in just over a year.

However, the Liberals continued to lead One Nation in Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania in January – although the gap had significantly narrowed.

South Australia faces a State Election next month – widely expected to be a landslide win for the incumbent Labor Government, and Victoria faces a State Election in just over nine months in November.

Although the chaos in the Opposition is providing a political boost to the Government, it’s not all good news – ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 3.5 points to 80.5 last week.

Driving the decrease was less confidence and optimism about people’s personal financial situations, both compared to a year ago, and looking forward over the next year.

The big economic news last week was the increase in inflation – the ABS CPI estimates show inflation accelerating to 3.8% in the year to December 2025 – the equal highest since May 2024.

Official ABS estimates of Inflation have now doubled in only six months since June 2025.

The doubling in official estimates of inflation in the last six months led to widespread speculation of interest rate increases last week, and today the Reserve Bank delivered a 0.25% interest rate rise – taking interest rates to 3.85%.

This was the first interest rate increase since November 2023 – and expectations last week that there would be a rate increase today was likely a big factor in the plunge in Consumer Confidence.

As well as the rise in official estimates, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations were up a further 0.1% to 5.5%.

This means Australians expect inflation of 5.5% in each of the next two years.

The trend for Inflation Expectations shows the index increasing consistently for the last 12 months since reaching a low in February 2025. The movement upward in Inflation Expectations clearly preceded the increase in official estimates of inflation which began in July last year – five months later.

On the other hand, Australians are more satisfied with their super funds than ever before.

New data from Roy Morgan Super Satisfaction Report shows overall satisfaction with the financial performance of super funds has increased to 78.8% in December 2025 - an increase of 10.4% points from a year ago and up 13.8% points from the post-pandemic low reached in July 2023 of 65%.

Satisfaction with super funds is now over 19% points higher than the long-run average of 59.6% since 2007.

This should be no surprise with the record performance of the Australian stock-market. In late 2025 the ASX200 hit record highs above 9,000 points – up over 20% since July 2023.

A look across the different types of super funds shows increases for all four over the last year – and all are near multi-year highs.

The standout over the last 12 months are Retail Funds – Customer Satisfaction among those with their super in Retail Funds increased 10.5% points to 75.6% - a record high, and just behind Industry Funds on 78.9%, up 9.6% points from a year ago.

Public Sector Funds have the highest customer satisfaction at 83.6% just ahead of Self-Managed Funds at 80.4%.

Now, looking across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand with an election due later this year.

National has grown its lead early in 2026 and is now on 34.5%, 4% points ahead of Labour on 30.5%.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is up 1.5% to 52% - the highest support for the Government since 2024 including National on 34.5%, NZ First on 9% and ACT on 8.5%.

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition is down 3% to 44% including Labour on 30.5%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Maori Party on 3%.