Roy Morgan Update January 20, 2026: Australia Day, Consumer Confidence, Inflation and Unemployment

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Australia Day, Consumer Confidence, Inflation and Unemployment.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support for both major parties dropped as One Nation surged 6% to 21% - a record high – following heated debate on legislation proposed on gun laws and hate speech after the Bondi attack.

Primary support for the ALP fell 1.5% to 28.5%, the Coalition dropped 6.5% to 24%, the Greens were unchanged on 13.5% while Independent/ Other Parties were up 2% to 13%.

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP on 53.5% - up 1.5%, increased its lead over the Coalition on 46.5%.

The increased lead for the ALP on two-party preferred terms is due to the shift in support from the Coalition to One Nation.

Nonetheless, if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be returned to Government with a decreased majority.

Support for One Nation is highest in New South Wales at 26% and Queensland at 24% - and ahead of the Coalition on primary vote in both of these key States.

Support for the Coalition is at only 19% in New South Wales and at 22% in Queensland.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll was surveyed with a representative cross-section of 1,630 Australians from Monday January 12 to Sunday January 18.

A majority of 57.5% now say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 30.5% of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating Is virtually unchanged this week at 73.

The results from a special Roy Morgan Poll on Australia Day show the issue is split on political lines, but an increased majority of Australians say January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’ rather than ‘Invasion Day’ and the date of Australia Day should not be moved.

It’s a complicated and contentious issue.

Roy Morgan has surveyed Australians in recent years on the issue by asking the following question: “On January 26, 1788, Captain Arthur Phillip landed at Sydney Cove. In your opinion should January 26 be known as Australia Day or Invasion Day?”

Over the last two years there has been a steady increase in support for ‘Australia Day’ remaining as is.

Now 72% of Australians now say January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’ (up 3.5% from 2024) and only 28% say the day should be known as ‘Invasion Day’.

The result is somewhat closer in terms of moving the date – but support has increased for leaving the date alone.

Now 60.5% (up 2% since 2024) say the date should remain the same while 39.5% say the date should be moved.

This is the highest support for Australia Day recorded by Roy Morgan. There is majority support for Australia Day retaining its name and date across all age groups, genders, and all States.

However, the issue is divided politically with large majorities of L-NP and One Nation supporters saying January 26 should remain as Australia Day and the date should not be changed – over 90% for both parties on both questions, whereas majorities of ALP and Greens supporters say January 26 should be known as ‘Invasion Day’ and the date should be changed.

For more information on this poll including a more rich and nuanced understanding of how Australians feel about the issue visit the Roy Morgan website.

In a worrying sign, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has dropped 5.2 points to 79.3 in mid-January.

The usual increase in the survey to start January reported last week has dissipated.

There were two sub-indexes which drove the fall.

Buying sentiment dropped a net 12% points and is at its lowest for nine months since April 2025.

In addition, there was a sharp drop in confidence about personal financial situations over the next year.

The biggest losses in Consumer Confidence were in New South Wales, and Queensland, both States experiencing severe weather conditions.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased 0.2% to 5.6% - matching the two-year highs reached in mid-December.

This means Australians expect inflation of 5.6% in each of the next two years.

Now to Roy Morgan measures of employment and unemployment – and the news is mixed in December.

The workforce grew 130,000 to over 16 million driven by rising employment (more people working) – and increasing unemployment (more looking for work).

‘Real Unemployment’ increased 0.2% to 10.4%, - so, an estimated 1.67 million Australians are looking for work, up 41,000 on a month ago.

However, employment also increased, up 89,000 to over 14.4 million. The increase was driven by a jump in part-time employment, up 143,000 to over 5.2 million during the busy pre-Christmas retailing period.

Full-time employment was down 54,000 to under 9.2 million.

Under-employment– the number of people wanting to work more hours – increased for a third straight month, up 78,000 to over 1.79 million, its highest for a year since January 2025.

Total unemployment and under-employment – what we might call workforce under-utilisation – increased 0.6% to 21.5% of the workforce in October – an estimated 3.46 million people.

The estimates for December continue a long-run of high figures with over 3 million Australians now unemployed or under-employed for a 13^th straight month.

Now, looking across the Tasman to the political situation in New Zealand with an election due later this year.

National has a narrow lead entering 2026 on 33% just ahead of the main opposition Labour on 32.5%, up 4.5%.

Comparing the two sides of politics - the National-led Government is up 0.5% to 50.5% including support for National on 33%, NZ First on 10% and ACT on 7.5%.

Support for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition is up 2.5% to 47% including Labour on 32.5%, the Greens on 12% and the Maori Party on just 2.5%.

If these Roy Morgan results were repeated at next year’s election, the National-led Government would be narrowly re-elected with 62 seats compared to 58-60 seats for the Parliamentary Opposition – depending on how many “over-hang” seats were potentially won by the Maori Party.

After naming a Speaker for the Parliament this would constitute a razor thin majority of 1-2 seats for National.