Roy Morgan Update January 28, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll shows primary support increasing for the ALP, up 2% to 30.5%, and One Nation, up 2% to 22.5% - and for the first time ahead of the Liberal Party, down 2% to 20%.

Support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13%, and down 1% to 14% for Independents/ Other Parties. This includes former Coalition partner the Nationals on 2.5%.

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP increased 3% to 56.5% - a large lead over the Liberal-National Coalition on 43.5% - if the parties were to re-unite.

The increased lead for the ALP on two-party preferred terms is due to both the increase in the ALP primary support as well as the fall in support for Liberals.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be easily returned to Government.

Support for One Nation is highest in New South Wales at 29% and Queensland at 28.5% - and ahead of the Coalition on primary vote in both of these key States.

The latest Roy Morgan Poll was surveyed with a representative cross-section of 1,653 Australians from Monday January 19 to Sunday January 25.

A majority of 56.5% now say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’, only 29.5% of Australians say the country is ‘going in the right direction’.

This means the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged this week at 73.

In positive news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 4.7 points to 84 in late January.

Driving the increase was increasing confidence about personal financial situations and strong results in both Queensland and New South Wales as these States emerged from severe weather conditions a week earlier.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations eased 0.2% to 5.4%.

This means Australians expect inflation of 5.4% in each of the next two years.

The latest Roy Morgan estimates show mortgage stress down in December, by 0.2%. Now 24.5% of Australians with a mortgage, are ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress – an estimated 1.19 million Australians.

Mortgage stress has proven sensitive to interest rate decisions and has now declined by 3.4% following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut interest rates in August.

This is the lowest level of mortgage stress for three years since January 2023.

However, recent indications are that there will be no more interest rate cuts, and the higher inflation, and inflation expectations recently, suggest there is a growing possibility of the RBA raising interest rates – perhaps as soon as next week.

And now to some new data on ‘Solar Energy Systems’ which includes solar hot water systems, solar heated swimming pools and rooftop solar panels with, or without, battery systems.

Around 32% of Australian households now have some form of solar energy system and these figures include 27% of households with rooftop solar panels.

New data from Roy Morgan shows the take up of solar panels increases the likelihood of consumers switching their electricity service provider.

Importantly, recent solar energy converts are more likely to have switched their electricity service provider than the average household; and they are more likely to be considering switching in the next 12 months.

This correlation is likely due to consumers with solar energy systems searching for the best solar energy buy back rate, otherwise known as feed-in tariffs. 

This is just one of the interesting changes emerging from Roy Morgan’s in-depth research program on energy utilities, including electricity and gas, and take-up of solar energy systems. To learn more, visit the Roy Morgan website.

And finally today –Roy Morgan in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association showed Australians planned to spend an estimated $2.9 Billion on ‘Back-to-School’ spending this year – up $200 million on a year ago.

21% of Australians take part in ‘Back to School’ spending – equivalent to 4.5 million people, and average spend is $573 – up $48 on a year ago.

Spending at the higher levels is increasing with 44% set to spend more than $500, up from 35% a year ago, including 22% spending over $1,000.

The most popular spending items are School uniforms (56%), Stationary (55%), Footwear, Shoes (47%), Books (44%) and lunch boxes/food etc (25%).

Back-to-school purchasing remains heavily weighted to physical retail, with 60% of shoppers planning to buy in-store, compared with 39% online.