Roy Morgan Update July 21, 2026: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence and Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly update.

In politics, One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson’s two-week trip to Europe has not delivered a political benefit for One Nation. The trip included speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference Great Britain in London, a controversial interview with British right-wing figure Tommy Robinson, and a short holiday in Italy with mining magnate Gina Rinehart – Australia’s richest person and a key backer of One Nation.

Hanson’s trip faced criticism from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who said: “I find it astonishing that Pauline Hanson has travelled overseas in order to denigrate and talk down Australia,” and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said Hanson had questions to answer about controversial One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts “The question here for Pauline Hanson is: what is she going to do about it? She’s over in Italy right now”.

Whether these criticisms are fair or not – One Nation’s primary vote dropped 5.5% this week.

ALP primary support is unchanged at 27.5%, L-NP Coalition, up 3% to 23% - Liberals 20.5% (up 3%) and Nationals 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation down 5.5% to 22.5%, Greens up 1.5% to 14%, and Independents/ Other Parties up 1% to 13% according to the Roy Morgan Poll conducted from July 13-19, 2026, with a representative Australia-wide cross-section of 1,679 electors.

Support for One Nation dropped across the board, and the biggest falls were in the largest states of New South Wales and Victoria with both down by over 8% from a week ago.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win a majority against either One Nation or the Coalition and is in a better position than a week ago.

If the contest were between ALP and L-NP, on a two-party preferred basis ALP is ahead – 56% (up 2%) to 44% (down 2%), based on how electors said they’d ’vote’ their preferences.

Against One Nation – the Roy Morgan two-party preferred estimate is 55% (up 2.5%) to 45% (down 2.5%) in favour of the ALP.

The complicated nature of the next Federal Election means there will be contests between the ALP and One Nation, the ALP and L-NP Coalition, One Nation and the L-NP Coalition, and any three of these parties against the Greens, Teal Independents, and other minor parties such as Katter’s Australian Party (KAP).

Whether the contest is ALP One Nation, or ALP L-NP, will depend on the seat-by-seat outcome – and it’s too early to begin detailed analysis – especially given the dramatic rate of change in the parties’ support.

Government Confidence improved this week, albeit a large, reduced majority of Australians, 59.5%, say the country is ‘going in the wrong direction’ (down 3%). Only 26% say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ (up 2.5%).

This results in Roy Morgan Government Confidence increasing 5.5 points to 66.5, still over 30 points below the neutral level of 100.

Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is 75.6, up 0.3 points from a week ago and still well below the neutral level of 100.

Driving Consumer Confidence up slightly was more confidence about current buying conditions, offset by a decline in how people see their personal financial situations over the next year.

In concerning news, ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations increased again this week, up 0.1% to 5.8%.

This means Australians expect annual inflation of 5.8% in each of the next two years.

This is the first time since March that Inflation Expectations have increased for consecutive weeks. And its occurred after the Albanese Government reversed half of the fuel excise cut in early July.

We know petrol prices are probably the most visible price cues Australians use every day and average retail petrol prices have increased about 13 cents per litre since the end of June.

Mortgage stress was up in June. As we predicted when interest rates increased in May, the latest Roy Morgan estimates of mortgage stress for June show an increase of 1.3% - now 30.3% of Australians with a mortgage are ‘At Risk’ – an estimated 1.61 million Australians – 68,000 more than May.

The increase for June is the fifth straight monthly increase since the Reserve Bank began raising interest rates in February.

The level of mortgage stress is the highest since the amended Stage 3 income tax cuts were introduced two years ago.

Roy Morgan forecasts that if the Reserve Bank increases interest rates by 0.25% in both August and September to 4.85%, mortgage stress will increase to an estimated 1.67 million mortgage holders – up 61,000 from now.

Now to some important research conducted by Roy Morgan in conjunction with Ad Standards about social influencers.

A large majority of 84% of Australians believe it's important social influencers disclose when content is advertising.

Influencer marketing is now a mainstream part of Australia's advertising landscape with 83% of Australians now familiar with influencer marketing, and more than half (57%) encounter it daily.

Concerns about influencer marketing are strongly linked to transparency and authenticity. The top concerns were influencers promoting products they may not genuinely use or believe in (60%), intentionally disguising paid promotions (59%), and content not being clearly identifiable as advertising (52%).

More than half of Australians (52%) are concerned about children being exposed to influencer promotions that may not be appropriate for them.

The findings showing transparency not only aligns with community expectations but also helps protect the reputation of brands and influencers.

The Ad Standards-Roy Morgan Community Sentiment Tracker Survey was conducted online with a cross-section of 1,006 Australians aged 18+ between 18 May and 1 June 2026.

And finally today, a look Roy Morgan’s latest data on the harmful impact of gambling which shows 15.1% of Australians, an estimated 3.32 million people, are experiencing some level of harm from their own gambling behaviours or those close to them.

‘Gambling harm’ refers to the adverse financial, emotional, psychological and social impacts experienced as a result of gambling, affecting both individuals who gamble, and those close to them.

Amongst all Australians aged 18+:

7.8% reported a ‘reduction of available spending money’ as a result of their gambling.

7.1% reported a ‘reduction of savings’ as a result of their gambling.

5.9% reported ‘less spending on recreational expenses such as eating out, going to the movies or other entertainment’ as a result of their gambling.

5.9% reported they ‘had regrets that made them feel sorry about their gambling’.

5.8% reported they ‘felt ashamed of their gambling’.

For a full list of the gambling harm statements as well as more details about how gambling is having a harmful effect on well over 3 million Australians, visit the Roy Morgan website.